NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan

Michigan International Speedway — June 13, 2010

Denny Hamlin

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway on June 13, 2010, leading 123 of 200 laps. Kasey Kahne finished second; Kurt Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 13, 2010

Track

Michigan International Speedway

Season

2010

Winner

Denny Hamlin

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	7	+6	Denny Hamlin		200	—	Running	123	195
2	4	+2	Kasey Kahne		200	—	Running	6	175
3	1	-2	Kurt Busch	Dodge	200	—	Running	60	170
4	6	+2	Jeff Gordon		200	—	Running	—	160
5	17	+12	Tony Stewart		200	—	Running	—	155
6	3	-3	Jimmie Johnson		200	—	Running	—	150
7	27	+20	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		200	—	Running	—	146
8	5	-3	Jeff Burton		200	—	Running	—	142
9	16	+7	Greg Biffle		200	—	Running	—	138
10	12	+2	Joey Logano		200	—	Running	—	134
11	26	+15	A.J. Allmendinger		200	—	Running	—	130
12	19	+7	Carl Edwards		200	—	Running	—	127
13	10	-3	Juan Pablo Montoya		200	—	Running	—	124
14	39	+25	Matt Kenseth		200	—	Running	2	126
15	24	+9	Marcos Ambrose		200	—	Running	—	118
16	21	+5	Mark Martin		200	—	Running	—	115
17	13	-4	Martin Truex, Jr.		200	—	Running	—	112
18	9	-9	David Reutimann		200	—	Running	—	109
19	31	+12	Kevin Harvick		200	—	Running	—	106
20	15	-5	Kyle Busch		200	—	Running	—	103
21	11	-10	Elliott Sadler		200	—	Running	—	100
22	25	+3	Clint Bowyer		200	—	Running	—	97
23	23	—	Regan Smith		199	—	Running	—	94
24	2	-22	Jamie McMurray		199	—	Running	1	96
25	22	-3	Paul Menard		199	—	Running	—	88
26	18	-8	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	199	—	Running	5	90
27	33	+6	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	199	—	Running	—	82
28	29	+1	Scott Speed		199	—	Running	—	79
29	28	-1	Bill Elliott		199	—	Running	—	76
30	43	+13	David Stremme		199	—	Running	1	78
31	34	+3	Travis Kvapil		199	—	Running	—	70
32	8	-24	Ryan Newman		199	—	Running	—	67
33	20	-13	Robby Gordon		199	—	Running	1	69
34	14	-20	David Ragan		198	—	Running	—	61
35	36	+1	David Gilliland		197	—	Running	—	58
36	32	-4	Casey Mears		149	—	DNF	—	55
37	37	—	Joe Nemechek		66	—	DNF	1	57
38	35	-3	Landon Cassill		51	—	DNF	—	49
39	40	+1	J.J. Yeley		47	—	DNF	—	46
40	42	+2	Kevin Conway		38	—	DNF	—	43
41	30	-11	Bobby Labonte		31	—	DNF	—	40
42	41	-1	Todd Bodine		20	—	DNF	—	37
43	38	-5	Max Papis		8	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Denny Hamlin	8.2	1	+7.2	High Confidence
6	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	6	+13.9	Moderate
10	Joey Logano	14.7	10	+4.7	Coinflip
11	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	11	+7.3	Moderate
17	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	17	-1.6	Coinflip
20	Kyle Busch	17.0	20	-3.0	Coinflip
27	Brad Keselowski	11.2	27	-15.8	Moderate
36	Casey Mears	16.9	36	-19.1	Coinflip
39	J.J. Yeley	28.8	39	-10.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin: has 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P20. Track history: 42 starts, 17.1 avg finish.

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