Brickyard 400

Indianapolis Motor Speedway — July 31, 2011

Paul Menard

Winner

160

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Paul Menard won the 2011 Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 31, 2011, leading 21 of 160 laps. Jeff Gordon finished second; Regan Smith rounded out the podium. The race featured 13 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, July 31, 2011

Track

Indianapolis Motor Speedway

Season

2011

Winner

Paul Menard

Leaders

13 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	15	+14	Paul Menard		160	—	Running	21	47
2	8	+6	Jeff Gordon		160	—	Running	36	43
3	27	+24	Regan Smith		160	—	Running	—	41
4	16	+12	Jamie McMurray		160	—	Running	5	41
5	9	+4	Matt Kenseth		160	—	Running	10	40
6	24	+18	Tony Stewart		160	—	Running	10	39
7	18	+11	Greg Biffle		160	—	Running	—	37
8	12	+4	Mark Martin		160	—	Running	—	36
9	5	-4	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	160	—	Running	17	36
10	29	+19	Kyle Busch		160	—	Running	—	34
11	19	+8	Kevin Harvick		160	—	Running	—	33
12	23	+11	Ryan Newman		160	—	Running	—	32
13	26	+13	Clint Bowyer		160	—	Running	2	32
14	10	-4	Carl Edwards		160	—	Running	—	30
15	31	+16	Brian Vickers		160	—	Running	—	29
16	22	+6	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		160	—	Running	7	29
17	17	—	Bobby Labonte		160	—	Running	—	27
18	2	-16	Kasey Kahne		160	—	Running	48	28
19	3	-16	Jimmie Johnson		160	—	Running	1	26
20	32	+12	Landon Cassill		160	—	Running	1	0
21	4	-17	Kurt Busch	Dodge	160	—	Running	—	23
22	6	-16	A.J. Allmendinger		160	—	Running	—	22
23	1	-22	David Ragan		160	—	Running	1	22
24	30	+6	Martin Truex, Jr.		160	—	Running	—	20
25	20	-5	Joey Logano		160	—	Running	—	19
26	39	+13	Andy Lally		160	—	Running	—	18
27	14	-13	Denny Hamlin		160	—	Running	—	17
28	7	-21	Juan Pablo Montoya		160	—	Running	—	16
29	11	-18	Casey Mears		160	—	Running	—	15
30	25	-5	Trevor Bayne		160	—	Running	—	0
31	33	+2	Dave Blaney		160	—	Running	1	14
32	42	+10	Mike Bliss		159	—	Running	—	0
33	37	+4	David Gilliland		157	—	Running	—	11
34	21	-13	Marcos Ambrose		157	—	Running	—	10
35	13	-22	Jeff Burton		152	—	Running	—	9
36	28	-8	David Reutimann		49	—	DNF	—	8
37	35	-2	Michael McDowell		23	—	DNF	—	7
38	36	-2	Joe Nemechek		19	—	DNF	—	0
39	34	-5	Scott Speed		19	—	DNF	—	0
40	38	-2	Mike Skinner		16	—	DNF	—	0
41	43	+2	Terry Labonte		15	—	DNF	—	3
42	40	-2	T.J. Bell		10	—	DNF	—	2
43	41	-2	Robby Gordon	Dodge	5	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
9	Brad Keselowski	11.2	9	+2.2	Moderate
10	Kyle Busch	17.0	10	+7.0	Coinflip
19	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	19	+0.9	Moderate
22	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	22	-3.7	Moderate
24	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	24	-8.6	Coinflip
25	Joey Logano	14.7	25	-10.3	Coinflip
27	Denny Hamlin	8.2	27	-18.8	High Confidence
29	Casey Mears	16.9	29	-12.1	Coinflip
37	Michael McDowell	17.0	37	-20.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Paul Menard: has 21 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 14.5 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 19 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 14.5 avg finish, finishing P27 on the day.

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