NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono

Pocono Raceway — August 7, 2011

Brad Keselowski

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Brad Keselowski won the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono at Pocono Raceway on August 7, 2011, leading 19 of 200 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Kurt Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 7, 2011

Track

Pocono Raceway

Season

2011

Winner

Brad Keselowski

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	13	+12	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	200	—	Running	19	47
2	11	+9	Kyle Busch		200	—	Running	27	43
3	5	+2	Kurt Busch	Dodge	200	—	Running	38	42
4	18	+14	Jimmie Johnson		200	—	Running	—	40
5	12	+7	Ryan Newman		200	—	Running	1	40
6	31	+25	Jeff Gordon		200	—	Running	—	38
7	4	-3	Carl Edwards		200	—	Running	2	38
8	9	+1	Greg Biffle		200	—	Running	1	37
9	19	+10	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		200	—	Running	—	35
10	7	-3	Paul Menard		200	—	Running	—	34
11	28	+17	Tony Stewart		200	—	Running	—	33
12	3	-9	Martin Truex, Jr.		200	—	Running	—	32
13	25	+12	Mark Martin		200	—	Running	—	31
14	10	-4	Kevin Harvick		200	—	Running	—	30
15	6	-9	Denny Hamlin		200	—	Running	65	31
16	20	+4	Matt Kenseth		200	—	Running	—	28
17	8	-9	Jeff Burton		200	—	Running	—	27
18	14	-4	Clint Bowyer		200	—	Running	—	26
19	29	+10	A.J. Allmendinger		200	—	Running	—	25
20	27	+7	Marcos Ambrose		200	—	Running	—	24
21	17	-4	Regan Smith		200	—	Running	—	23
22	16	-6	Jamie McMurray		200	—	Running	—	22
23	24	+1	David Gilliland		200	—	Running	—	21
24	33	+9	David Reutimann		200	—	Running	—	20
25	22	-3	Bobby Labonte		200	—	Running	—	19
26	1	-25	Joey Logano		200	—	Running	44	19
27	36	+9	Landon Cassill		199	—	Running	2	0
28	2	-26	Kasey Kahne		199	—	Running	—	16
29	42	+13	Andy Lally		199	—	Running	—	15
30	21	-9	Dave Blaney		198	—	Running	—	14
31	39	+8	Travis Kvapil		198	—	Running	—	0
32	23	-9	Juan Pablo Montoya		198	—	Running	—	12
33	41	+8	Jason A. White		197	—	Running	—	0
34	15	-19	David Ragan		149	—	DNF	—	10
35	38	+3	Robby Gordon	Dodge	79	—	DNF	—	9
36	32	-4	Casey Mears		30	—	DNF	1	9
37	30	-7	Todd Bodine		25	—	DNF	—	0
38	37	-1	David Stremme		18	—	DNF	—	6
39	26	-13	Brian Vickers		18	—	DNF	—	5
40	40	—	Scott Speed		16	—	DNF	—	0
41	43	+2	Joe Nemechek		14	—	DNF	—	0
42	35	-7	Erik Darnell		8	—	DNF	—	2
43	34	-9	J.J. Yeley		7	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Brad Keselowski	11.2	1	+10.2	Moderate
2	Kyle Busch	17.0	2	+15.0	Coinflip
4	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	4	+15.9	Moderate
12	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	12	+3.4	Coinflip
15	Denny Hamlin	8.2	15	-6.8	High Confidence
19	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	19	-0.7	Moderate
26	Joey Logano	14.7	26	-11.3	Coinflip
36	Casey Mears	16.9	36	-19.1	Coinflip
43	J.J. Yeley	28.8	43	-14.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Brad Keselowski: has 31 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 11.5 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 38 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 10.5 avg finish (7 wins), finishing P15 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P20. Track history: 37 starts, 12.4 avg finish.

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