Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami

Homestead-Miami Speedway — November 20, 2011

Tony Stewart

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Tony Stewart won the 2011 Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 20, 2011, leading 65 of 267 laps. Carl Edwards finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 15 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Track

Homestead-Miami Speedway

Season

2011

Winner

Tony Stewart

Leaders

15 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	15	+14	Tony Stewart		267	—	Running	65	47
2	1	-1	Carl Edwards		267	—	Running	119	44
3	2	-1	Martin Truex, Jr.		267	—	Running	5	42
4	6	+2	Matt Kenseth		267	—	Running	15	41
5	7	+2	Jeff Gordon		267	—	Running	7	40
6	17	+11	Clint Bowyer		267	—	Running	—	38
7	3	-4	Kasey Kahne		267	—	Running	—	37
8	21	+13	Kevin Harvick		267	—	Running	12	37
9	10	+1	Denny Hamlin		267	—	Running	—	35
10	31	+21	Jeff Burton		267	—	Running	4	35
11	11	—	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		267	—	Running	—	33
12	14	+2	Ryan Newman		267	—	Running	—	32
13	16	+3	Regan Smith		267	—	Running	—	31
14	26	+12	Jamie McMurray		267	—	Running	—	30
15	12	-3	A.J. Allmendinger		267	—	Running	—	29
16	23	+7	Paul Menard		267	—	Running	—	28
17	24	+7	Brian Vickers		267	—	Running	—	27
18	28	+10	David Reutimann		267	—	Running	—	26
19	32	+13	Joey Logano		267	—	Running	—	25
20	5	-15	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	266	—	Running	11	25
21	43	+22	Mike Bliss		266	—	Running	—	0
22	40	+18	Travis Kvapil		266	—	Running	3	0
23	19	-4	Kyle Busch		266	—	Running	16	22
24	25	+1	Mark Martin		266	—	Running	—	20
25	20	-5	Trevor Bayne		266	—	Running	—	0
26	39	+13	Casey Mears		266	—	Running	—	18
27	35	+8	Bobby Labonte		266	—	Running	—	17
28	34	+6	Dave Blaney		265	—	Running	—	16
29	41	+12	T.J. Bell		265	—	Running	—	15
30	42	+12	Geoffrey Bodine		263	—	Running	—	14
31	27	-4	Juan Pablo Montoya		261	—	Running	2	14
32	9	-23	Jimmie Johnson		261	—	Running	2	13
33	38	+5	David Gilliland		245	—	Running	1	12
34	4	-30	Kurt Busch	Dodge	220	—	DNF	—	10
35	8	-27	Greg Biffle		190	—	DNF	2	10
36	22	-14	Landon Cassill		153	—	DNF	—	0
37	29	-8	Cole Whitt		153	—	DNF	—	0
38	13	-25	David Ragan		81	—	DNF	—	6
39	18	-21	Marcos Ambrose		72	—	DNF	—	5
40	37	-3	Joe Nemechek		29	—	DNF	3	0
41	30	-11	J.J. Yeley		25	—	DNF	—	3
42	36	-6	David Stremme		14	—	DNF	—	2
43	33	-10	Michael McDowell		13	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	3	+12.4	Coinflip
9	Denny Hamlin	8.2	9	-0.8	High Confidence
15	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	15	+3.3	Moderate
19	Joey Logano	14.7	19	-4.3	Coinflip
20	Brad Keselowski	11.2	20	-8.8	Moderate
23	Kyle Busch	17.0	23	-6.0	Coinflip
26	Casey Mears	16.9	26	-9.1	Coinflip
32	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	32	-12.1	Moderate
41	J.J. Yeley	28.8	41	-12.2	High Confidence
43	Michael McDowell	17.0	43	-26.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Tony Stewart: has 19 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 17.7 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P9 on the day.
Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P15. Track history: 19 starts, 10.7 avg finish.

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