NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol

Bristol Motor Speedway — March 20, 2011

Kyle Busch

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway on March 20, 2011, leading 153 of 500 laps. Carl Edwards finished second; Jimmie Johnson rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Season

2011

Winner

Kyle Busch

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	12	+11	Kyle Busch		500	—	Running	153	47
2	1	-1	Carl Edwards		500	—	Running	18	43
3	6	+3	Jimmie Johnson		500	—	Running	164	43
4	11	+7	Matt Kenseth		500	—	Running	—	40
5	4	-1	Paul Menard		500	—	Running	35	40
6	15	+9	Kevin Harvick		500	—	Running	37	39
7	20	+13	Kurt Busch	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	37
8	2	-6	Greg Biffle		500	—	Running	—	36
9	10	+1	Kasey Kahne		500	—	Running	—	35
10	21	+11	Ryan Newman		500	—	Running	26	35
11	22	+11	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		500	—	Running	—	33
12	9	-3	Mark Martin		500	—	Running	—	32
13	16	+3	Bobby Labonte		500	—	Running	—	31
14	7	-7	Jeff Gordon		500	—	Running	—	30
15	14	-1	Marcos Ambrose		500	—	Running	—	29
16	5	-11	David Ragan		500	—	Running	—	28
17	8	-9	Martin Truex, Jr.		500	—	Running	63	28
18	23	+5	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	26
19	13	-6	Tony Stewart		500	—	Running	—	25
20	17	-3	Jeff Burton		498	—	Running	—	24
21	24	+3	Jamie McMurray		498	—	Running	—	23
22	3	-19	Regan Smith		498	—	Running	—	22
23	18	-5	Joey Logano		497	—	Running	—	21
24	36	+12	Juan Pablo Montoya		497	—	Running	—	20
25	37	+12	Dave Blaney		497	—	Running	—	19
26	35	+9	Travis Kvapil		496	—	Running	—	0
27	29	+2	David Gilliland		495	—	Running	4	18
28	41	+13	Tony Raines		494	—	Running	—	16
29	31	+2	Bill Elliott		493	—	Running	—	15
30	26	-4	David Reutimann		493	—	Running	—	14
31	28	-3	A.J. Allmendinger		493	—	Running	—	13
32	42	+10	Andy Lally		491	—	Running	—	12
33	25	-8	Denny Hamlin		488	—	Running	—	11
34	19	-15	Trevor Bayne		482	—	Running	—	0
35	27	-8	Clint Bowyer		456	—	Running	—	9
36	30	-6	Brian Vickers		441	—	Running	—	8
37	43	+6	Casey Mears		427	—	Running	—	7
38	40	+2	Dennis Setzer		336	—	DNF	—	0
39	33	-6	Robby Gordon	Dodge	127	—	DNF	—	5
40	38	-2	J.J. Yeley		97	—	DNF	—	4
41	34	-7	Joe Nemechek		72	—	DNF	—	0
42	32	-10	Landon Cassill		36	—	DNF	—	0
43	39	-4	Michael McDowell		35	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 14.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Kyle Busch	15.6	1	+14.6	Coinflip
3	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	3	+14.7	Moderate
17	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	17	-3.2	Coinflip
18	Brad Keselowski	12.0	18	-6.0	Coinflip
23	Joey Logano	12.1	23	-10.9	Coinflip
31	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	31	-12.7	Moderate
33	Denny Hamlin	6.8	33	-26.2	High Confidence
37	Casey Mears	18.0	37	-19.0	Moderate
40	J.J. Yeley	28.1	40	-11.9	High Confidence
43	Michael McDowell	15.0	43	-28.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kyle Busch: has 73 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 11.7 avg finish (20 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P33 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P18. Track history: 45 starts, 14.7 avg finish.

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