NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Las Vegas

Las Vegas Motor Speedway — March 6, 2011

Carl Edwards

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Carl Edwards won the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Las Vegas at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on March 6, 2011, leading 69 of 267 laps. Tony Stewart finished second; Juan Pablo Montoya rounded out the podium. The race featured 14 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, March 6, 2011

Track

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Season

2011

Winner

Carl Edwards

Leaders

14 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	3	+2	Carl Edwards		267	—	Running	69	47
2	15	+13	Tony Stewart		267	—	Running	163	44
3	23	+20	Juan Pablo Montoya		267	—	Running	7	42
4	2	-2	Marcos Ambrose		267	—	Running	1	41
5	8	+3	Ryan Newman		267	—	Running	—	39
6	9	+3	Martin Truex, Jr.		267	—	Running	3	39
7	17	+10	Denny Hamlin		267	—	Running	—	37
8	33	+25	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		267	—	Running	—	36
9	22	+13	Kurt Busch	Dodge	267	—	Running	1	36
10	19	+9	Brian Vickers		267	—	Running	—	34
11	1	-10	Matt Kenseth		267	—	Running	3	34
12	18	+6	Paul Menard		267	—	Running	3	33
13	25	+12	David Reutimann		267	—	Running	1	32
14	30	+16	Kasey Kahne		267	—	Running	—	30
15	28	+13	Clint Bowyer		267	—	Running	1	30
16	14	-2	Jimmie Johnson		267	—	Running	—	28
17	26	+9	Kevin Harvick		267	—	Running	—	27
18	10	-8	Mark Martin		267	—	Running	—	26
19	7	-12	A.J. Allmendinger		267	—	Running	—	25
20	16	-4	Trevor Bayne		267	—	Running	—	0
21	21	—	Jeff Burton		267	—	Running	—	23
22	42	+20	David Ragan		267	—	Running	—	22
23	6	-17	Joey Logano		266	—	Running	—	21
24	24	—	Bobby Labonte		266	—	Running	—	20
25	27	+2	Casey Mears		266	—	Running	—	19
26	20	-6	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	265	—	Running	—	18
27	11	-16	Jamie McMurray		264	—	Running	—	17
28	4	-24	Greg Biffle		264	—	Running	11	17
29	29	—	Mike Skinner		262	—	Running	1	0
30	37	+7	Bill Elliott		262	—	Running	—	14
31	38	+7	Robby Gordon	Dodge	261	—	Running	—	13
32	40	+8	Andy Lally		261	—	Running	—	12
33	39	+6	Travis Kvapil		261	—	Running	—	0
34	34	—	Dave Blaney		260	—	Running	1	11
35	41	+6	Tony Raines		258	—	Running	—	9
36	13	-23	Jeff Gordon		193	—	DNF	2	9
37	35	-2	David Gilliland		147	—	DNF	—	7
38	5	-33	Kyle Busch		107	—	DNF	—	6
39	12	-27	Regan Smith		77	—	DNF	—	5
40	32	-8	J.J. Yeley		45	—	DNF	—	4
41	43	+2	Michael McDowell		41	—	DNF	—	3
42	31	-11	Joe Nemechek		34	—	DNF	—	0
43	36	-7	Landon Cassill		32	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
6	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	6	+9.4	Coinflip
7	Denny Hamlin	8.2	7	+1.2	High Confidence
16	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	16	+3.9	Moderate
19	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	19	-0.7	Moderate
23	Joey Logano	14.7	23	-8.3	Coinflip
25	Casey Mears	16.9	25	-8.1	Coinflip
26	Brad Keselowski	11.2	26	-14.8	Moderate
38	Kyle Busch	17.0	38	-21.0	Coinflip
40	J.J. Yeley	28.8	40	-11.2	High Confidence
41	Michael McDowell	17.0	41	-24.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Carl Edwards: has 20 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 14.1 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 37 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 13.2 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P7 on the day.

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