NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville

Martinsville Speedway — October 30, 2011

Tony Stewart

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Tony Stewart won the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville at Martinsville Speedway on October 30, 2011, leading 14 of 500 laps. Jimmie Johnson finished second; Jeff Gordon rounded out the podium. The race featured 12 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 30, 2011

Track

Martinsville Speedway

Season

2011

Winner

Tony Stewart

Leaders

12 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	4	+3	Tony Stewart		500	—	Running	14	47
2	7	+5	Jimmie Johnson		500	—	Running	61	43
3	10	+7	Jeff Gordon		500	—	Running	113	42
4	5	+1	Kevin Harvick		500	—	Running	35	41
5	11	+6	Denny Hamlin		500	—	Running	58	40
6	23	+17	Jeff Burton		500	—	Running	—	38
7	9	+2	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		500	—	Running	—	37
8	24	+16	Martin Truex, Jr.		500	—	Running	—	36
9	1	-8	Carl Edwards		500	—	Running	28	36
10	12	+2	Ryan Newman		500	—	Running	41	35
11	16	+5	A.J. Allmendinger		500	—	Running	19	34
12	33	+21	Casey Mears		500	—	Running	—	32
13	26	+13	Regan Smith		500	—	Running	—	31
14	8	-6	Kurt Busch	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	30
15	15	—	Greg Biffle		500	—	Running	—	29
16	35	+19	Travis Kvapil		500	—	Running	1	0
17	3	-14	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	27
18	22	+4	Joey Logano		500	—	Running	—	26
19	13	-6	Clint Bowyer		500	—	Running	—	25
20	28	+8	David Reutimann		500	—	Running	—	24
21	34	+13	Ken Schrader		499	—	Running	—	23
22	20	-2	Juan Pablo Montoya		497	—	Running	—	22
23	32	+9	Dave Blaney		497	—	Running	—	21
24	21	-3	Paul Menard		497	—	Running	—	20
25	14	-11	Kasey Kahne		495	—	Running	—	19
26	36	+10	Hermie Sadler		493	—	Running	—	0
27	6	-21	Kyle Busch		493	—	Running	126	19
28	19	-9	Mark Martin		491	—	Running	—	16
29	17	-12	Marcos Ambrose		488	—	Running	—	15
30	25	-5	Brian Vickers		484	—	Running	—	14
31	2	-29	Matt Kenseth		477	—	Running	3	14
32	29	-3	Bobby Labonte		464	—	Running	—	12
33	18	-15	David Ragan		444	—	Running	—	11
34	31	-3	David Gilliland		357	—	DNF	1	11
35	27	-8	Jamie McMurray		85	—	DNF	—	9
36	37	+1	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	77	—	DNF	—	0
37	39	+2	Scott Speed		74	—	DNF	—	0
38	42	+4	David Stremme		52	—	DNF	—	6
39	40	+1	Michael McDowell		45	—	DNF	—	5
40	43	+3	J.J. Yeley		40	—	DNF	—	4
41	41	—	Joe Nemechek		33	—	DNF	—	0
42	30	-12	Landon Cassill		27	—	DNF	—	0
43	38	-5	Mike Skinner		7	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	2	+15.7	Moderate
5	Denny Hamlin	6.8	5	+1.8	High Confidence
8	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	8	+5.8	Coinflip
11	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	11	+7.3	Moderate
12	Casey Mears	18.0	12	+6.0	Moderate
17	Brad Keselowski	12.0	17	-5.0	Coinflip
18	Joey Logano	12.1	18	-5.9	Coinflip
27	Kyle Busch	15.6	27	-11.4	Coinflip
39	Michael McDowell	15.0	39	-24.0	Coinflip
40	J.J. Yeley	28.1	40	-11.9	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Tony Stewart: has 34 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 14.0 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 47 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 9.2 avg finish (8 wins), finishing P5 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P18. Track history: 36 starts, 8.7 avg finish.

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