NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Talladega

Talladega Superspeedway — October 23, 2011

Clint Bowyer

Winner

188

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Clint Bowyer won the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Talladega at Talladega Superspeedway on October 23, 2011, leading 25 of 188 laps. Jeff Burton finished second; Dave Blaney rounded out the podium. The race featured 26 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 23, 2011

Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Season

2011

Winner

Clint Bowyer

Leaders

26 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	3	+2	Clint Bowyer		188	—	Running	25	47
2	25	+23	Jeff Burton		188	—	Running	26	43
3	41	+38	Dave Blaney		188	—	Running	1	42
4	16	+12	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	188	—	Running	1	41
5	30	+25	Brian Vickers		188	—	Running	3	40
6	26	+20	Kasey Kahne		188	—	Running	4	39
7	12	+5	Tony Stewart		188	—	Running	30	39
8	31	+23	Denny Hamlin		188	—	Running	—	36
9	23	+14	Michael Waltrip		188	—	Running	1	36
10	37	+27	Martin Truex, Jr.		188	—	Running	—	34
11	9	-2	Carl Edwards		188	—	Running	1	34
12	7	-5	Paul Menard		188	—	Running	—	32
13	36	+23	David Reutimann		188	—	Running	—	31
14	18	+4	Greg Biffle		188	—	Running	1	31
15	4	-11	Trevor Bayne		188	—	Running	—	0
16	38	+22	Landon Cassill		188	—	Running	—	0
17	42	+25	Casey Mears		188	—	Running	—	27
18	11	-7	Matt Kenseth		188	—	Running	21	27
19	19	—	Marcos Ambrose		188	—	Running	3	26
20	1	-19	Mark Martin		188	—	Running	2	25
21	17	-4	Travis Kvapil		188	—	Running	1	0
22	40	+18	David Gilliland		188	—	Running	—	22
23	15	-8	Juan Pablo Montoya		188	—	Running	16	22
24	35	+11	Joey Logano		188	—	Running	—	20
25	6	-19	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		188	—	Running	2	20
26	2	-24	Jimmie Johnson		188	—	Running	1	19
27	5	-22	Jeff Gordon		188	—	Running	1	18
28	8	-20	David Ragan		188	—	Running	1	17
29	39	+10	Jamie McMurray		184	—	Running	12	16
30	22	-8	Regan Smith		180	—	Running	—	14
31	24	-7	A.J. Allmendinger		179	—	Running	—	13
32	13	-19	Kevin Harvick		179	—	Running	13	13
33	34	+1	Kyle Busch		175	—	Running	5	12
34	32	-2	Terry Labonte		175	—	Running	—	10
35	21	-14	Bobby Labonte		173	—	Running	—	9
36	14	-22	Kurt Busch	Dodge	173	—	Running	1	9
37	43	+6	Robby Gordon	Dodge	173	—	Running	10	8
38	10	-28	Ryan Newman		172	—	Running	5	7
39	33	-6	Andy Lally		162	—	Running	1	6
40	29	-11	Michael McDowell		6	—	DNF	—	4
41	27	-14	Joe Nemechek		4	—	DNF	—	0
42	28	-14	J.J. Yeley		3	—	DNF	—	2
43	20	-23	Kevin Conway		2	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
4	Brad Keselowski	16.0	4	+12.0	Coinflip
8	Denny Hamlin	16.0	8	+8.0	Coinflip
10	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	10	+10.1	Coinflip
17	Casey Mears	18.5	17	+1.5	Coinflip
24	Joey Logano	20.5	24	-3.5	Moderate
26	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	26	-7.1	Coinflip
31	A.J. Allmendinger	20.1	31	-10.9	Moderate
33	Kyle Busch	15.1	33	-17.9	Coinflip
40	Michael McDowell	20.0	40	-20.0	Coinflip
42	J.J. Yeley	25.2	42	-16.8	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Clint Bowyer: has 31 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 15.4 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 54 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 18.1 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P33 on the day.
Brad Keselowski: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P16. Track history: 37 starts, 16.2 avg finish.

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