NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan

Michigan International Speedway — June 19, 2011

Denny Hamlin

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway on June 19, 2011, leading 8 of 200 laps. Matt Kenseth finished second; Kyle Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 12 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 19, 2011

Track

Michigan International Speedway

Season

2011

Winner

Denny Hamlin

Leaders

12 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	10	+9	Denny Hamlin		200	—	Running	8	47
2	3	+1	Matt Kenseth		200	—	Running	17	43
3	24	+21	Kyle Busch		200	—	Running	59	42
4	9	+5	Paul Menard		200	—	Running	2	41
5	23	+18	Carl Edwards		200	—	Running	30	40
6	13	+7	Ryan Newman		200	—	Running	3	39
7	6	-1	Tony Stewart		200	—	Running	—	37
8	27	+19	Clint Bowyer		200	—	Running	—	36
9	19	+10	Mark Martin		200	—	Running	—	35
10	4	-6	Brian Vickers		200	—	Running	—	34
11	1	-10	Kurt Busch	Dodge	200	—	Running	9	34
12	12	—	Landon Cassill		200	—	Running	—	0
13	26	+13	A.J. Allmendinger		200	—	Running	—	31
14	22	+8	Kevin Harvick		200	—	Running	1	31
15	7	-8	Greg Biffle		200	—	Running	68	31
16	17	+1	Trevor Bayne		200	—	Running	—	0
17	31	+14	Jeff Gordon		200	—	Running	—	27
18	30	+12	Joey Logano		200	—	Running	—	26
19	14	-5	Jamie McMurray		200	—	Running	—	25
20	20	—	David Ragan		200	—	Running	—	24
21	15	-6	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		200	—	Running	—	23
22	16	-6	Bobby Labonte		200	—	Running	1	23
23	18	-5	Marcos Ambrose		200	—	Running	—	21
24	33	+9	Jeff Burton		200	—	Running	—	20
25	41	+16	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	19
26	11	-15	Martin Truex, Jr.		199	—	Running	—	18
27	21	-6	Jimmie Johnson		199	—	Running	—	17
28	8	-20	Kasey Kahne		199	—	Running	—	16
29	40	+11	David Gilliland		199	—	Running	—	15
30	25	-5	Juan Pablo Montoya		199	—	Running	—	14
31	28	-3	Travis Kvapil		199	—	Running	—	0
32	35	+3	Mike Bliss		199	—	Running	1	0
33	5	-28	Regan Smith		199	—	Running	—	11
34	42	+8	Dave Blaney		198	—	Running	—	10
35	2	-33	David Reutimann		180	—	Running	—	9
36	36	—	Andy Lally		155	—	DNF	—	8
37	37	—	Robby Gordon	Dodge	80	—	DNF	—	7
38	39	+1	Casey Mears		51	—	DNF	1	7
39	34	-5	J.J. Yeley		47	—	DNF	—	5
40	29	-11	Joe Nemechek		44	—	DNF	—	0
41	32	-9	David Stremme		39	—	DNF	—	3
42	43	+1	Scott Riggs		30	—	DNF	—	0
43	38	-5	Michael McDowell		28	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Denny Hamlin	8.2	1	+7.2	High Confidence
3	Kyle Busch	17.0	3	+14.0	Coinflip
13	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	13	+5.3	Moderate
18	Joey Logano	14.7	18	-3.3	Coinflip
25	Brad Keselowski	11.2	25	-13.8	Moderate
26	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	26	-10.6	Coinflip
27	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	27	-7.1	Moderate
38	Casey Mears	16.9	38	-21.1	Coinflip
39	J.J. Yeley	28.8	39	-10.2	High Confidence
43	Michael McDowell	17.0	43	-26.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin: has 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P17. Track history: 55 starts, 12.2 avg finish.

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