NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono

Pocono Raceway — June 12, 2011

Jeff Gordon

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jeff Gordon won the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono at Pocono Raceway on June 12, 2011, leading 39 of 200 laps. Kurt Busch finished second; Kyle Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 12, 2011

Track

Pocono Raceway

Season

2011

Winner

Jeff Gordon

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	3	+2	Jeff Gordon		200	—	Running	39	47
2	1	-1	Kurt Busch	Dodge	200	—	Running	37	43
3	34	+31	Kyle Busch		200	—	Running	2	36
4	14	+10	Jimmie Johnson		200	—	Running	1	41
5	32	+27	Kevin Harvick		200	—	Running	—	39
6	21	+15	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		200	—	Running	—	38
7	16	+9	Juan Pablo Montoya		200	—	Running	38	38
8	27	+19	Matt Kenseth		200	—	Running	—	36
9	8	-1	Ryan Newman		200	—	Running	—	35
10	31	+21	Martin Truex, Jr.		200	—	Running	—	34
11	19	+8	Joey Logano		200	—	Running	—	33
12	17	+5	Kasey Kahne		200	—	Running	—	32
13	9	-4	David Reutimann		200	—	Running	—	31
14	2	-12	Paul Menard		200	—	Running	—	30
15	5	-10	Regan Smith		200	—	Running	—	29
16	12	-4	Clint Bowyer		200	—	Running	—	28
17	11	-6	David Ragan		200	—	Running	—	27
18	10	-8	Mark Martin		200	—	Running	—	26
19	4	-15	Denny Hamlin		200	—	Running	76	27
20	33	+13	Jeff Burton		200	—	Running	—	24
21	15	-6	Tony Stewart		200	—	Running	1	24
22	23	+1	Brian Vickers		200	—	Running	—	22
23	20	-3	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	21
24	25	+1	Landon Cassill		200	—	Running	4	0
25	28	+3	A.J. Allmendinger		199	—	Running	—	19
26	40	+14	Dave Blaney		199	—	Running	—	18
27	37	+10	Greg Biffle		199	—	Running	—	17
28	18	-10	Bobby Labonte		199	—	Running	—	16
29	30	+1	David Gilliland		199	—	Running	—	15
30	35	+5	Casey Mears		198	—	Running	—	14
31	41	+10	Mike Bliss		197	—	Running	—	0
32	24	-8	Andy Lally		194	—	Running	—	12
33	13	-20	Jamie McMurray		189	—	Running	—	11
34	7	-27	Marcos Ambrose		154	—	DNF	—	10
35	26	-9	Sam Hornish Jr.		140	—	DNF	—	0
36	38	+2	Tony Raines		124	—	DNF	—	8
37	6	-31	Carl Edwards		59	—	DNF	—	7
38	42	+4	Scott Wimmer	Dodge	51	—	DNF	1	0
39	43	+4	T.J. Bell		33	—	DNF	—	5
40	29	-11	Joe Nemechek		29	—	DNF	—	0
41	36	-5	Michael McDowell		29	—	DNF	1	4
42	22	-20	J.J. Yeley		23	—	DNF	—	2
43	39	-4	Scott Riggs		17	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Kyle Busch	17.0	3	+14.0	Coinflip
4	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	4	+15.9	Moderate
10	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	10	+5.4	Coinflip
11	Joey Logano	14.7	11	+3.7	Coinflip
19	Denny Hamlin	8.2	19	-10.8	High Confidence
23	Brad Keselowski	11.2	23	-11.8	Moderate
25	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	25	-6.7	Moderate
30	Casey Mears	16.9	30	-13.1	Coinflip
41	Michael McDowell	17.0	41	-24.0	Coinflip
42	J.J. Yeley	28.8	42	-13.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jeff Gordon: has 47 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 10.2 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 38 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 10.5 avg finish (7 wins), finishing P19 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P20. Track history: 37 starts, 12.4 avg finish.

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