NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Charlotte

Charlotte Motor Speedway — October 13, 2012

Clint Bowyer

Winner

334

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Clint Bowyer won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Charlotte at Charlotte Motor Speedway on October 13, 2012, leading 29 of 334 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Jimmie Johnson rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, October 13, 2012

Track

Charlotte Motor Speedway

Season

2012

Winner

Clint Bowyer

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	4	+3	Clint Bowyer		334	—	Running	29	47
2	9	+7	Denny Hamlin		334	—	Running	36	43
3	5	+2	Jimmie Johnson		334	—	Running	53	42
4	1	-3	Greg Biffle		334	—	Running	71	41
5	8	+3	Kyle Busch		334	—	Running	—	39
6	2	-4	Mark Martin		334	—	Running	2	39
7	19	+12	Carl Edwards		333	—	Running	—	37
8	10	+2	Kasey Kahne		333	—	Running	—	36
9	12	+3	Joey Logano		333	—	Running	—	35
10	6	-4	Martin Truex, Jr.		333	—	Running	—	34
11	20	+9	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	333	—	Running	139	35
12	17	+5	Aric Almirola		333	—	Running	—	32
13	32	+19	Tony Stewart		333	—	Running	—	31
14	7	-7	Matt Kenseth		333	—	Running	—	30
15	14	-1	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	333	—	Running	—	0
16	11	-5	Kevin Harvick		333	—	Running	—	28
17	30	+13	Jamie McMurray		333	—	Running	—	27
18	13	-5	Jeff Gordon		332	—	Running	2	27
19	22	+3	Juan Pablo Montoya		332	—	Running	—	25
20	3	-17	Ryan Newman		332	—	Running	—	24
21	21	—	Kurt Busch		332	—	Running	—	23
22	16	-6	Trevor Bayne		332	—	Running	—	0
23	36	+13	David Gilliland		331	—	Running	—	21
24	38	+14	A.J. Allmendinger		330	—	Running	—	20
25	41	+16	Travis Kvapil		330	—	Running	—	19
26	37	+11	Landon Cassill		329	—	Running	—	18
27	24	-3	Paul Menard		328	—	Running	—	17
28	39	+11	Jeff Burton		327	—	Running	—	16
29	27	-2	Casey Mears		327	—	Running	—	15
30	34	+4	David Reutimann		327	—	Running	—	14
31	33	+2	Michael McDowell		326	—	Running	—	13
32	15	-17	Bobby Labonte		324	—	Running	—	12
33	18	-15	Marcos Ambrose		303	—	Running	2	12
34	25	-9	David Ragan		287	—	Running	—	10
35	29	-6	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.		190	—	DNF	—	0
36	40	+4	Timmy Hill		182	—	DNF	—	0
37	31	-6	David Stremme		62	—	DNF	—	7
38	26	-12	Regan Smith		61	—	DNF	—	6
39	28	-11	Mike Bliss		53	—	DNF	—	0
40	23	-17	Scott Speed		50	—	DNF	—	4
41	43	+2	Reed Sorenson		32	—	DNF	—	0
42	35	-7	J.J. Yeley		30	—	DNF	—	2
43	42	-1	Dave Blaney		25	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 12 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Denny Hamlin	8.2	2	+6.2	High Confidence
3	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	3	+16.9	Moderate
5	Kyle Busch	17.0	5	+12.0	Coinflip
9	Joey Logano	14.7	9	+5.7	Coinflip
10	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	10	+5.4	Coinflip
11	Brad Keselowski	11.2	11	+0.2	Moderate
24	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	24	-5.7	Moderate
29	Casey Mears	16.9	29	-12.1	Coinflip
31	Michael McDowell	17.0	31	-14.0	Coinflip
35	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	35	-15.1	Moderate
36	Timmy Hill	23.9	36	-12.1	High Confidence
42	J.J. Yeley	28.8	42	-13.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Clint Bowyer: has 29 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 15.6 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 39 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 11.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P20. Track history: 37 starts, 19.1 avg finish.

Track Preview →