NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire

New Hampshire Motor Speedway — September 23, 2012

Denny Hamlin

Winner

300

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on September 23, 2012, leading 193 of 300 laps. Jimmie Johnson finished second; Jeff Gordon rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Track

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Season

2012

Winner

Denny Hamlin

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	32	+31	Denny Hamlin		300	—	Running	193	48
2	20	+18	Jimmie Johnson		300	—	Running	2	43
3	1	-2	Jeff Gordon		300	—	Running	7	42
4	12	+8	Clint Bowyer		300	—	Running	—	40
5	6	+1	Kasey Kahne		300	—	Running	1	40
6	15	+9	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	300	—	Running	4	39
7	3	-4	Tony Stewart		300	—	Running	38	38
8	18	+10	Joey Logano		300	—	Running	—	36
9	4	-5	Brian Vickers		300	—	Running	5	36
10	8	-2	Ryan Newman		300	—	Running	—	34
11	16	+5	Kevin Harvick		300	—	Running	—	33
12	7	-5	Paul Menard		300	—	Running	—	32
13	14	+1	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		300	—	Running	—	31
14	25	+11	Matt Kenseth		300	—	Running	1	31
15	11	-4	Jeff Burton		300	—	Running	—	29
16	22	+6	Regan Smith		300	—	Running	—	28
17	9	-8	Martin Truex, Jr.		300	—	Running	—	27
18	13	-5	Greg Biffle		300	—	Running	—	26
19	5	-14	Carl Edwards		300	—	Running	—	25
20	17	-3	Bobby Labonte		299	—	Running	—	24
21	10	-11	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	299	—	Running	—	0
22	24	+2	Juan Pablo Montoya		299	—	Running	—	22
23	19	-4	Aric Almirola		298	—	Running	—	21
24	21	-3	Marcos Ambrose		298	—	Running	—	20
25	23	-2	Kurt Busch		298	—	Running	—	19
26	29	+3	Jamie McMurray		298	—	Running	—	18
27	28	+1	Landon Cassill		298	—	Running	—	17
28	2	-26	Kyle Busch		298	—	Running	48	17
29	26	-3	David Ragan		297	—	Running	—	15
30	34	+4	David Reutimann		296	—	Running	—	14
31	33	+2	Travis Kvapil		296	—	Running	—	13
32	37	+5	David Gilliland		296	—	Running	—	12
33	42	+9	Mike Olsen		289	—	Running	—	11
34	39	+5	Stephen Leicht		151	—	DNF	—	10
35	43	+8	David Stremme		145	—	DNF	—	9
36	30	-6	Casey Mears		100	—	DNF	1	9
37	31	-6	Michael McDowell		97	—	DNF	—	7
38	27	-11	Scott Speed		88	—	DNF	—	6
39	36	-3	Joe Nemechek		78	—	DNF	—	0
40	41	+1	Tony Raines		68	—	DNF	—	4
41	40	-1	J.J. Yeley		29	—	DNF	—	3
42	35	-7	Reed Sorenson		21	—	DNF	—	0
43	38	-5	Kelly Bires		20	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Denny Hamlin	6.8	1	+5.8	High Confidence
2	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	2	+15.7	Moderate
6	Brad Keselowski	12.0	6	+6.0	Coinflip
8	Joey Logano	12.1	8	+4.1	Coinflip
17	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	17	-3.2	Coinflip
28	Kyle Busch	15.6	28	-12.4	Coinflip
36	Casey Mears	18.0	36	-18.0	Moderate
37	Michael McDowell	15.0	37	-22.0	Coinflip
41	J.J. Yeley	28.1	41	-12.9	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin: has 35 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 10.1 avg finish (3 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P18. Track history: 24 starts, 10.8 avg finish.

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