NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Darlington

Darlington Raceway — May 12, 2012

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

368

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Darlington at Darlington Raceway on May 12, 2012, leading 134 of 368 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Tony Stewart rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, May 12, 2012

Track

Darlington Raceway

Season

2012

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	2	+1	Jimmie Johnson		368	—	Running	134	48
2	8	+6	Denny Hamlin		368	—	Running	56	43
3	17	+14	Tony Stewart		368	—	Running	—	41
4	5	+1	Kyle Busch		368	—	Running	44	41
5	6	+1	Martin Truex, Jr.		368	—	Running	25	40
6	19	+13	Matt Kenseth		368	—	Running	—	38
7	7	—	Carl Edwards		368	—	Running	—	37
8	3	-5	Kasey Kahne		368	—	Running	33	37
9	28	+19	Marcos Ambrose		368	—	Running	—	35
10	21	+11	Joey Logano		368	—	Running	—	34
11	26	+15	Clint Bowyer		368	—	Running	—	33
12	1	-11	Greg Biffle		368	—	Running	74	33
13	14	+1	Paul Menard		368	—	Running	—	31
14	9	-5	Regan Smith		368	—	Running	—	30
15	15	—	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	368	—	Running	—	29
16	23	+7	Kevin Harvick		368	—	Running	—	28
17	24	+7	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		368	—	Running	1	28
18	10	-8	Jeff Burton		368	—	Running	—	26
19	13	-6	Aric Almirola		368	—	Running	—	25
20	18	-2	Mark Martin		368	—	Running	—	24
21	25	+4	Kurt Busch		368	—	Running	—	23
22	31	+9	Casey Mears		367	—	Running	—	22
23	4	-19	Ryan Newman		367	—	Running	—	21
24	27	+3	Juan Pablo Montoya		366	—	Running	—	20
25	36	+11	David Gilliland		366	—	Running	—	19
26	20	-6	Landon Cassill		366	—	Running	1	19
27	34	+7	Dave Blaney		365	—	Running	—	17
28	37	+9	David Ragan		364	—	Running	—	16
29	22	-7	Bobby Labonte		364	—	Running	—	15
30	42	+12	Reed Sorenson		363	—	Running	—	0
31	38	+7	Danica Patrick		362	—	Running	—	0
32	33	+1	Travis Kvapil		362	—	Running	—	0
33	16	-17	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	357	—	Running	—	11
34	11	-23	Jamie McMurray		345	—	Running	—	10
35	12	-23	Jeff Gordon		339	—	Running	—	9
36	41	+5	David Reutimann		314	—	Running	—	8
37	43	+6	J.J. Yeley		132	—	DNF	—	7
38	39	+1	Cole Whitt		35	—	DNF	—	0
39	32	-7	David Stremme		32	—	DNF	—	5
40	40	—	Joe Nemechek		27	—	DNF	—	0
41	35	-6	Mike Skinner		20	—	DNF	—	0
42	29	-13	Scott Speed		20	—	DNF	—	2
43	30	-13	Josh Wise		19	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	1	+18.9	Moderate
2	Denny Hamlin	8.2	2	+6.2	High Confidence
4	Kyle Busch	17.0	4	+13.0	Coinflip
5	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	5	+10.4	Coinflip
10	Joey Logano	14.7	10	+4.7	Coinflip
15	Brad Keselowski	11.2	15	-3.8	Moderate
22	Casey Mears	16.9	22	-5.1	Coinflip
33	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	33	-14.7	Moderate
37	J.J. Yeley	28.8	37	-8.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 29 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 16.0 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 7.6 avg finish (10 wins), finishing P2 on the day.

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