NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol

Bristol Motor Speedway — March 18, 2012

Brad Keselowski

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Brad Keselowski won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway on March 18, 2012, leading 232 of 500 laps. Matt Kenseth finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Season

2012

Winner

Brad Keselowski

Leaders

7 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	5	+4	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	500	—	Running	232	48
2	21	+19	Matt Kenseth		500	—	Running	45	43
3	15	+12	Martin Truex, Jr.		500	—	Running	—	41
4	16	+12	Clint Bowyer		500	—	Running	—	40
5	25	+20	Brian Vickers		500	—	Running	125	40
6	33	+27	Jeff Burton		500	—	Running	—	38
7	17	+10	Jamie McMurray		500	—	Running	—	37
8	30	+22	Juan Pablo Montoya		500	—	Running	—	36
9	22	+13	Jimmie Johnson		500	—	Running	—	35
10	11	+1	Paul Menard		500	—	Running	—	34
11	14	+3	Kevin Harvick		500	—	Running	—	33
12	3	-9	Ryan Newman		500	—	Running	—	32
13	1	-12	Greg Biffle		500	—	Running	41	32
14	23	+9	Tony Stewart		500	—	Running	—	30
15	18	+3	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		500	—	Running	2	30
16	9	-7	Joey Logano		498	—	Running	—	28
17	2	-15	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	498	—	Running	54	28
18	27	+9	Kurt Busch		498	—	Running	—	26
19	7	-12	Aric Almirola		498	—	Running	—	25
20	20	—	Denny Hamlin		498	—	Running	—	24
21	19	-2	David Reutimann		497	—	Running	—	23
22	32	+10	Brendan Gaughan		496	—	Running	—	22
23	31	+8	David Ragan		496	—	Running	—	21
24	6	-18	Regan Smith		496	—	Running	—	20
25	24	-1	Casey Mears		496	—	Running	—	19
26	26	—	David Gilliland		496	—	Running	—	18
27	34	+7	Travis Kvapil		496	—	Running	—	17
28	36	+8	Bobby Labonte		495	—	Running	—	16
29	29	—	Landon Cassill		495	—	Running	—	15
30	40	+10	J.J. Yeley		493	—	Running	—	14
31	39	+8	Michael McDowell		492	—	Running	—	13
32	13	-19	Kyle Busch		423	—	DNF	—	12
33	42	+9	Ken Schrader		420	—	DNF	—	11
34	35	+1	Dave Blaney		417	—	DNF	—	10
35	4	-31	Jeff Gordon		395	—	DNF	1	10
36	12	-24	Marcos Ambrose		389	—	DNF	—	8
37	10	-27	Kasey Kahne		366	—	DNF	—	7
38	28	-10	David Stremme		334	—	DNF	—	6
39	8	-31	Carl Edwards		245	—	DNF	—	5
40	41	+1	Joe Nemechek		57	—	DNF	—	0
41	43	+2	Scott Riggs		26	—	DNF	—	3
42	38	-4	Reed Sorenson		17	—	DNF	—	0
43	37	-6	Josh Wise		16	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.0 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Brad Keselowski	12.0	1	+11.0	Coinflip
3	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	3	+10.8	Coinflip
9	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	9	+8.7	Moderate
16	Joey Logano	12.1	16	-3.9	Coinflip
17	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	17	+1.3	Moderate
20	Denny Hamlin	6.8	20	-13.2	High Confidence
25	Casey Mears	18.0	25	-7.0	Moderate
30	J.J. Yeley	28.1	30	-1.9	High Confidence
31	Michael McDowell	15.0	31	-16.0	Coinflip
32	Kyle Busch	15.6	32	-16.4	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Brad Keselowski: has 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.1 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P20 on the day.

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