NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Las Vegas

Las Vegas Motor Speedway — March 11, 2012

Tony Stewart

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Tony Stewart won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Las Vegas at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on March 11, 2012, leading 127 of 267 laps. Jimmie Johnson finished second; Greg Biffle rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, March 11, 2012

Track

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Season

2012

Winner

Tony Stewart

Leaders

11 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	7	+6	Tony Stewart		267	—	Running	127	48
2	6	+4	Jimmie Johnson		267	—	Running	35	43
3	9	+6	Greg Biffle		267	—	Running	2	42
4	18	+14	Ryan Newman		267	—	Running	—	40
5	21	+16	Carl Edwards		267	—	Running	—	39
6	5	-1	Clint Bowyer		267	—	Running	3	39
7	26	+19	Paul Menard		267	—	Running	—	37
8	19	+11	Jamie McMurray		267	—	Running	—	36
9	25	+16	Trevor Bayne		267	—	Running	—	0
10	4	-6	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		267	—	Running	70	35
11	3	-8	Kevin Harvick		267	—	Running	4	34
12	16	+4	Jeff Gordon		267	—	Running	2	33
13	15	+2	Marcos Ambrose		267	—	Running	—	31
14	22	+8	Jeff Burton		267	—	Running	—	30
15	27	+12	Regan Smith		267	—	Running	—	29
16	8	-8	Joey Logano		267	—	Running	—	28
17	10	-7	Martin Truex, Jr.		267	—	Running	—	27
18	13	-5	Mark Martin		267	—	Running	—	26
19	1	-18	Kasey Kahne		267	—	Running	—	25
20	17	-3	Denny Hamlin		267	—	Running	—	24
21	35	+14	David Ragan		267	—	Running	1	24
22	11	-11	Matt Kenseth		267	—	Running	21	23
23	2	-21	Kyle Busch		266	—	Running	—	21
24	28	+4	Aric Almirola		266	—	Running	—	20
25	29	+4	Juan Pablo Montoya		264	—	Running	—	19
26	24	-2	Bobby Labonte		264	—	Running	—	18
27	32	+5	Casey Mears		264	—	Running	—	17
28	43	+15	David Stremme		263	—	Running	—	16
29	38	+9	Dave Blaney		263	—	Running	—	15
30	41	+11	Ken Schrader		263	—	Running	—	14
31	31	—	David Reutimann		261	—	Running	—	13
32	20	-12	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	259	—	Running	1	13
33	34	+1	David Gilliland		258	—	Running	—	11
34	23	-11	Brendan Gaughan		252	—	Running	—	10
35	12	-23	Kurt Busch		251	—	Running	—	9
36	30	-6	Landon Cassill		240	—	Running	—	8
37	14	-23	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	238	—	Running	1	8
38	39	+1	Michael McDowell		147	—	DNF	—	6
39	37	-2	Travis Kvapil		123	—	DNF	—	5
40	33	-7	Josh Wise		64	—	DNF	—	4
41	40	-1	Joe Nemechek		44	—	DNF	—	0
42	42	—	Timmy Hill		42	—	DNF	—	0
43	36	-7	J.J. Yeley		39	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 11 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	2	+17.9	Moderate
16	Joey Logano	14.7	16	-1.3	Coinflip
17	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	17	-1.6	Coinflip
20	Denny Hamlin	8.2	20	-11.8	High Confidence
23	Kyle Busch	17.0	23	-6.0	Coinflip
27	Casey Mears	16.9	27	-10.1	Coinflip
32	Brad Keselowski	11.2	32	-20.8	Moderate
37	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	37	-18.7	Moderate
38	Michael McDowell	17.0	38	-21.0	Coinflip
42	Timmy Hill	23.9	42	-18.1	High Confidence
43	J.J. Yeley	28.8	43	-14.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Tony Stewart: has 21 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 15.9 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 37 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 13.2 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P20 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P20. Track history: 24 starts, 12.6 avg finish.

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