NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Chicago

Chicagoland Speedway — September 16, 2012

Brad Keselowski
Winner
267
Laps
43
Entries
9
Leaders

Brad Keselowski won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Chicago at Chicagoland Speedway on September 16, 2012, leading 76 of 267 laps. Jimmie Johnson finished second; Kasey Kahne rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Sunday, September 16, 2012
Season
2012
Leaders
9 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 13 +12 Brad Keselowski
2 1 -1 Jimmie Johnson
3 6 +3 Kasey Kahne
4 21 +17 Kyle Busch
5 20 +15 Ryan Newman
6 29 +23 Tony Stewart
7 10 +3 Joey Logano
8 4 -4 Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
9 18 +9 Martin Truex, Jr.
10 9 -1 Clint Bowyer
11 16 +5 Sam Hornish Jr.
12 35 +23 Kevin Harvick
13 22 +9 Greg Biffle
14 15 +1 Mark Martin
15 11 -4 Paul Menard
16 8 -8 Denny Hamlin
17 2 -15 Aric Almirola
18 3 -15 Matt Kenseth
19 5 -14 Carl Edwards
20 14 -6 Trevor Bayne
21 12 -9 Jamie McMurray
22 37 +15 David Ragan
23 28 +5 Juan Pablo Montoya
24 32 +8 Jeff Burton
25 41 +16 Danica Patrick
26 23 -3 Bobby Labonte
27 17 -10 Marcos Ambrose
28 40 +12 David Gilliland
29 26 -3 Landon Cassill
30 39 +9 T.J. Bell
31 38 +7 Travis Kvapil
32 30 -2 Kurt Busch
33 42 +9 Dave Blaney
34 7 -27 Regan Smith
35 19 -16 Jeff Gordon
36 27 -9 Casey Mears
37 36 -1 Cole Whitt
38 43 +5 Josh Wise
39 31 -8 David Stremme
40 33 -7 Joe Nemechek
41 25 -16 Scott Speed
42 34 -8 Mike Bliss
43 24 -19 Michael McDowell
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Brad Keselowski 11.2 1 +10.2
2 Jimmie Johnson 19.9 2 +17.9
4 Kyle Busch 17.0 4 +13.0
7 Joey Logano 14.7 7 +7.7
9 Martin Truex, Jr. 15.4 9 +6.4
16 Denny Hamlin 8.2 16 -7.8
36 Casey Mears 16.9 36 -19.1
43 Michael McDowell 17.0 43 -26.0

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Brad Keselowski: has 16 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 8.6 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 19 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 14.4 avg finish (1 win), finishing P16 on the day.
  • Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P20. Track history: 20 starts, 9.3 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Chicago?
Brad Keselowski won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Chicago at Chicagoland Speedway.
Where was the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Chicago held?
The 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Chicago was held at Chicagoland Speedway on September 16, 2012.