NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono

Pocono Raceway — June 10, 2012

Joey Logano

Winner

160

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Joey Logano won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono at Pocono Raceway on June 10, 2012, leading 49 of 160 laps. Mark Martin finished second; Tony Stewart rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 10, 2012

Track

Pocono Raceway

Season

2012

Winner

Joey Logano

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Joey Logano		160	—	Running	49	48
2	6	+4	Mark Martin		160	—	Running	4	43
3	22	+19	Tony Stewart		160	—	Running	—	41
4	24	+20	Jimmie Johnson		160	—	Running	—	40
5	5	—	Denny Hamlin		160	—	Running	21	40
6	16	+10	Clint Bowyer		160	—	Running	—	38
7	14	+7	Matt Kenseth		160	—	Running	11	38
8	8	—	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		160	—	Running	36	37
9	3	-6	Paul Menard		160	—	Running	—	35
10	11	+1	Jamie McMurray		160	—	Running	14	35
11	2	-9	Carl Edwards		160	—	Running	—	33
12	18	+6	Ryan Newman		160	—	Running	—	32
13	9	-4	Marcos Ambrose		160	—	Running	—	31
14	21	+7	Kevin Harvick		160	—	Running	—	30
15	20	+5	Jeff Burton		160	—	Running	—	29
16	7	-9	Regan Smith		160	—	Running	—	28
17	17	—	Juan Pablo Montoya		160	—	Running	3	28
18	31	+13	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	160	—	Running	—	26
19	12	-7	Jeff Gordon		160	—	Running	—	25
20	23	+3	Martin Truex, Jr.		160	—	Running	—	24
21	25	+4	David Reutimann		160	—	Running	—	23
22	27	+5	Bobby Labonte		160	—	Running	—	22
23	36	+13	David Gilliland		160	—	Running	2	22
24	13	-11	Greg Biffle		160	—	Running	19	21
25	42	+17	Dave Blaney		159	—	Running	—	19
26	37	+11	Travis Kvapil		159	—	Running	—	18
27	34	+7	David Ragan		159	—	Running	1	18
28	29	+1	Aric Almirola		158	—	Running	—	16
29	10	-19	Kasey Kahne		139	—	Running	—	15
30	4	-26	Kyle Busch		76	—	DNF	—	14
31	19	-12	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	64	—	DNF	—	13
32	40	+8	Tony Raines		47	—	DNF	—	12
33	43	+10	Stephen Leicht		39	—	DNF	—	11
34	30	-4	Michael McDowell		37	—	DNF	—	10
35	26	-9	Casey Mears		36	—	DNF	—	9
36	32	-4	J.J. Yeley		33	—	DNF	—	8
37	33	-4	Joe Nemechek		30	—	DNF	—	0
38	28	-10	Mike Bliss		26	—	DNF	—	0
39	39	—	Stacy Compton		24	—	DNF	—	5
40	38	-2	Scott Riggs		19	—	DNF	—	4
41	41	—	Reed Sorenson		12	—	DNF	—	0
42	35	-7	Josh Wise		12	—	DNF	—	2
43	15	-28	Landon Cassill		1	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Joey Logano	14.7	1	+13.7	Coinflip
4	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	4	+15.9	Moderate
5	Denny Hamlin	8.2	5	+3.2	High Confidence
18	Brad Keselowski	11.2	18	-6.8	Moderate
20	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	20	-4.6	Coinflip
30	Kyle Busch	17.0	30	-13.0	Coinflip
31	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	31	-12.7	Moderate
34	Michael McDowell	17.0	34	-17.0	Coinflip
35	Casey Mears	16.9	35	-18.1	Coinflip
36	J.J. Yeley	28.8	36	-7.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Joey Logano: has 32 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 18.1 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 38 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 10.5 avg finish (7 wins), finishing P5 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P20. Track history: 37 starts, 12.4 avg finish.

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