Daytona 500

Daytona International Speedway — February 24, 2013

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2013 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 24, 2013, leading 17 of 200 laps. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. finished second; Mark Martin rounded out the podium. The race featured 14 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Track

Daytona International Speedway

Season

2013

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

14 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	9	+8	Jimmie Johnson	200	—	Running	17	47
2	19	+17	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	200	—	Running	—	42
3	14	+11	Mark Martin	200	—	Running	—	41
4	15	+11	Brad Keselowski	200	—	Running	13	41
5	34	+29	Ryan Newman	200	—	Running	3	40
6	5	-1	Greg Biffle	200	—	Running	—	38
7	40	+33	Regan Smith	200	—	Running	1	0
8	1	-7	Danica Patrick	200	—	Running	5	37
9	38	+29	Michael McDowell	200	—	Running	—	35
10	41	+31	J.J. Yeley	200	—	Running	—	34
11	10	-1	Clint Bowyer	200	—	Running	1	34
12	28	+16	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	200	—	Running	—	32
13	26	+13	Aric Almirola	200	—	Running	—	31
14	35	+21	Denny Hamlin	200	—	Running	33	31
15	23	+8	Bobby Labonte	200	—	Running	—	29
16	42	+26	David Reutimann	200	—	Running	—	28
17	30	+13	Dave Blaney	200	—	Running	—	27
18	24	+6	Marcos Ambrose	200	—	Running	—	26
19	21	+2	Joey Logano	200	—	Running	2	26
20	2	-18	Jeff Gordon	200	—	Running	31	25
21	16	-5	Paul Menard	200	—	Running	1	24
22	29	+7	Michael Waltrip	200	—	Running	4	23
23	31	+8	Scott Speed	200	—	Running	2	22
24	37	+13	Martin Truex, Jr.	200	—	Running	—	20
25	43	+18	Travis Kvapil	199	—	Running	1	20
26	39	+13	Terry Labonte	199	—	Running	—	18
27	33	+6	Trevor Bayne	198	—	Running	—	0
28	11	-17	Kurt Busch	195	—	Running	—	16
29	17	-12	Casey Mears	181	—	Running	—	15
30	18	-12	Jeff Burton	176	—	Running	—	14
31	8	-23	Austin Dillon	175	—	Running	—	0
32	20	-12	Jamie McMurray	161	—	DNF	—	12
33	36	+3	Carl Edwards	159	—	DNF	—	11
34	4	-30	Kyle Busch	151	—	DNF	—	10
35	22	-13	David Ragan	150	—	DNF	—	9
36	6	-30	Kasey Kahne	150	—	DNF	—	8
37	12	-25	Matt Kenseth	149	—	DNF	86	9
38	25	-13	David Gilliland	144	—	DNF	—	6
39	7	-32	Juan Pablo Montoya	144	—	DNF	—	5
40	32	-8	Josh Wise	137	—	DNF	—	0
41	13	-28	Tony Stewart	118	—	DNF	—	3
42	3	-39	Kevin Harvick	47	—	DNF	—	2
43	27	-16	Joe Nemechek	42	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	19.4	1	+18.4	Coinflip
4	Brad Keselowski	13.9	4	+9.9	Coinflip
9	Michael McDowell	17.4	9	+8.4	Coinflip
10	J.J. Yeley	24.0	10	+14.0	High Confidence
12	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	18.5	12	+6.5	Coinflip
13	Aric Almirola	16.0	13	+3.0	Coinflip
14	Denny Hamlin	17.4	14	+3.4	Coinflip
19	Joey Logano	18.8	19	-0.2	Coinflip
24	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	24	-3.9	Coinflip
29	Casey Mears	19.4	29	-9.6	Coinflip
31	Austin Dillon	22.9	31	-8.1	High Confidence
34	Kyle Busch	16.0	34	-18.0	Coinflip
35	David Ragan	18.5	35	-16.5	Coinflip
42	Kevin Harvick	20.0	42	-22.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 42 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 17.7 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Brad Keselowski: was the model’s top pick based on 45 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 18.2 avg finish (1 win), finishing P4 on the day.

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