NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol

Bristol Motor Speedway — March 17, 2013

Kasey Kahne

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kasey Kahne won the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway on March 17, 2013, leading 109 of 500 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, March 17, 2013

Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Season

2013

Winner

Kasey Kahne

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	2	+1	Kasey Kahne	500	—	Running	109	47
2	1	-1	Kyle Busch	500	—	Running	56	43
3	7	+4	Brad Keselowski	500	—	Running	62	42
4	19	+15	Kurt Busch	500	—	Running	1	41
5	23	+18	Clint Bowyer	500	—	Running	—	39
6	32	+26	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	500	—	Running	—	38
7	31	+24	Ryan Newman	500	—	Running	—	37
8	4	-4	Brian Vickers	500	—	Running	—	0
9	5	-4	Paul Menard	500	—	Running	1	36
10	6	-4	Jamie McMurray	500	—	Running	—	34
11	24	+13	Greg Biffle	500	—	Running	—	33
12	9	-3	Martin Truex, Jr.	500	—	Running	—	32
13	29	+16	A.J. Allmendinger	500	—	Running	—	31
14	18	+4	Kevin Harvick	500	—	Running	—	30
15	15	—	Casey Mears	500	—	Running	—	29
16	28	+12	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	500	—	Running	—	28
17	10	-7	Joey Logano	500	—	Running	1	28
18	21	+3	Carl Edwards	499	—	Running	—	26
19	22	+3	Marcos Ambrose	499	—	Running	—	25
20	26	+6	David Stremme	498	—	Running	—	24
21	30	+9	David Ragan	498	—	Running	2	24
22	13	-9	Jimmie Johnson	498	—	Running	—	22
23	3	-20	Denny Hamlin	498	—	Running	117	23
24	14	-10	David Gilliland	496	—	Running	—	20
25	43	+18	Terry Labonte	496	—	Running	—	19
26	40	+14	Josh Wise	496	—	Running	—	0
27	35	+8	J.J. Yeley	495	—	Running	—	17
28	41	+13	Danica Patrick	495	—	Running	—	16
29	38	+9	Joe Nemechek	490	—	Running	—	0
30	17	-13	Juan Pablo Montoya	487	—	Running	—	14
31	8	-23	Tony Stewart	464	—	Running	—	13
32	16	-16	Jeff Burton	458	—	Running	—	12
33	42	+9	Landon Cassill	410	—	DNF	—	0
34	11	-23	Jeff Gordon	390	—	DNF	66	11
35	12	-23	Matt Kenseth	390	—	DNF	85	10
36	33	-3	Dave Blaney	321	—	DNF	—	8
37	20	-17	Aric Almirola	245	—	DNF	—	7
38	37	-1	Travis Kvapil	234	—	DNF	—	6
39	25	-14	David Reutimann	184	—	DNF	—	5
40	27	-13	Scott Speed	184	—	DNF	—	4
41	39	-2	Bobby Labonte	159	—	DNF	—	3
42	34	-8	Michael McDowell	26	—	DNF	—	2
43	36	-7	Mike Bliss	3	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.6 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Kyle Busch	15.6	2	+13.6	Coinflip
3	Brad Keselowski	12.6	3	+9.6	Coinflip
7	Ryan Newman	23.0	7	+16.0	High Confidence
12	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	12	+1.8	Coinflip
13	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	13	+5.3	Moderate
14	Kevin Harvick	10.3	14	-3.7	Moderate
15	Casey Mears	18.0	15	+3.0	Moderate
16	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	20.2	16	+4.2	Moderate
17	Joey Logano	10.8	17	-6.2	Coinflip
22	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	22	-4.3	Moderate
23	Denny Hamlin	6.8	23	-16.2	High Confidence
27	J.J. Yeley	27.3	27	+0.3	High Confidence
37	Aric Almirola	14.0	37	-23.0	Coinflip
42	Michael McDowell	15.0	42	-27.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kasey Kahne: has 42 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 17.5 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P23 on the day.
Ryan Newman: was the biggest surprise, finishing P7 vs predicted P23. Track history: 47 starts, 14.1 avg finish.

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