NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan

Michigan International Speedway — June 16, 2013

Greg Biffle

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Greg Biffle won the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway on June 16, 2013, leading 48 of 200 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 13 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 16, 2013

Track

Michigan International Speedway

Season

2013

Winner

Greg Biffle

Leaders

13 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	19	+18	Greg Biffle	200	—	Running	48	48
2	21	+19	Kevin Harvick	200	—	Running	—	42
3	13	+10	Martin Truex, Jr.	200	—	Running	—	41
4	9	+5	Kyle Busch	200	—	Running	—	40
5	14	+9	Tony Stewart	200	—	Running	—	39
6	8	+2	Matt Kenseth	200	—	Running	—	38
7	27	+20	Clint Bowyer	200	—	Running	—	37
8	1	-7	Carl Edwards	200	—	Running	16	37
9	6	-3	Joey Logano	200	—	Running	21	36
10	18	+8	Jeff Burton	200	—	Running	—	34
11	7	-4	Austin Dillon	200	—	Running	—	0
12	16	+4	Brad Keselowski	200	—	Running	—	32
13	37	+24	Danica Patrick	200	—	Running	—	31
14	4	-10	Paul Menard	200	—	Running	—	30
15	25	+10	Trevor Bayne	200	—	Running	—	0
16	15	-1	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	200	—	Running	—	28
17	5	-12	Aric Almirola	200	—	Running	—	27
18	35	+17	Ryan Newman	200	—	Running	—	26
19	32	+13	A.J. Allmendinger	200	—	Running	—	25
20	10	-10	Juan Pablo Montoya	200	—	Running	—	24
21	24	+3	Casey Mears	200	—	Running	2	24
22	26	+4	David Gilliland	200	—	Running	—	22
23	23	—	Marcos Ambrose	200	—	Running	—	21
24	40	+16	J.J. Yeley	200	—	Running	1	21
25	31	+6	David Ragan	200	—	Running	1	20
26	22	-4	Mark Martin	200	—	Running	—	18
27	41	+14	Travis Kvapil	200	—	Running	2	18
28	17	-11	Jimmie Johnson	199	—	Running	18	17
29	34	+5	David Stremme	199	—	Running	—	15
30	11	-19	Denny Hamlin	199	—	Running	—	14
31	36	+5	Dave Blaney	199	—	Running	—	13
32	33	+1	David Reutimann	198	—	Running	—	12
33	28	-5	Jamie McMurray	196	—	Running	21	12
34	39	+5	Ken Schrader	195	—	Running	—	10
35	2	-33	Kurt Busch	193	—	Running	21	10
36	42	+6	Joe Nemechek	193	—	Running	—	0
37	12	-25	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	131	—	DNF	34	8
38	3	-35	Kasey Kahne	103	—	DNF	14	7
39	29	-10	Jeff Gordon	52	—	DNF	—	5
40	38	-2	Josh Wise	51	—	DNF	—	0
41	43	+2	Mike Bliss	50	—	DNF	—	0
42	30	-12	Michael McDowell	36	—	DNF	1	3
43	20	-23	Bobby Labonte	5	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.6 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Kevin Harvick	11.2	2	+9.2	Coinflip
3	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	3	+12.4	Coinflip
4	Kyle Busch	17.0	4	+13.0	Coinflip
9	Joey Logano	13.1	9	+4.1	Coinflip
11	Austin Dillon	19.1	11	+8.1	Moderate
12	Brad Keselowski	11.2	12	-0.8	Coinflip
16	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	22.9	16	+6.9	High Confidence
17	Aric Almirola	15.4	17	-1.6	Coinflip
19	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	19	-0.7	Moderate
21	Casey Mears	17.1	21	-3.9	Coinflip
24	J.J. Yeley	28.5	24	+4.5	High Confidence
28	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	28	-8.1	Moderate
30	Denny Hamlin	8.2	30	-21.8	High Confidence
42	Michael McDowell	16.7	42	-25.3	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Greg Biffle: has 39 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 13.9 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P30 on the day.
Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P17. Track history: 55 starts, 12.2 avg finish.

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