NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono

Pocono Raceway — June 9, 2013

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

160

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono at Pocono Raceway on June 9, 2013, leading 128 of 160 laps. Greg Biffle finished second; Dale Earnhardt, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 4 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 9, 2013

Track

Pocono Raceway

Season

2013

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

4 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Jimmie Johnson	160	—	Running	128	48
2	13	+11	Greg Biffle	160	—	Running	—	42
3	6	+3	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	160	—	Running	—	41
4	19	+15	Tony Stewart	160	—	Running	—	40
5	23	+18	Ryan Newman	160	—	Running	19	40
6	8	+2	Kyle Busch	160	—	Running	—	38
7	20	+13	Kurt Busch	160	—	Running	—	37
8	17	+9	Denny Hamlin	160	—	Running	—	36
9	5	-4	Kevin Harvick	160	—	Running	—	35
10	21	+11	Joey Logano	160	—	Running	—	34
11	24	+13	Jeff Burton	160	—	Running	—	33
12	11	-1	Jeff Gordon	160	—	Running	—	32
13	22	+9	Jamie McMurray	160	—	Running	—	31
14	25	+11	Juan Pablo Montoya	160	—	Running	—	30
15	3	-12	Clint Bowyer	160	—	Running	—	29
16	10	-6	Brad Keselowski	160	—	Running	4	29
17	26	+9	Marcos Ambrose	160	—	Running	—	27
18	2	-16	Carl Edwards	160	—	Running	9	27
19	14	-5	Mark Martin	160	—	Running	—	25
20	39	+19	Travis Kvapil	160	—	Running	—	24
21	12	-9	Aric Almirola	160	—	Running	—	23
22	27	+5	Casey Mears	160	—	Running	—	22
23	15	-8	Martin Truex, Jr.	160	—	Running	—	21
24	31	+7	David Gilliland	160	—	Running	—	20
25	4	-21	Matt Kenseth	160	—	Running	—	19
26	16	-10	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	160	—	Running	—	18
27	29	+2	Bobby Labonte	160	—	Running	—	17
28	33	+5	David Stremme	160	—	Running	—	16
29	30	+1	Danica Patrick	160	—	Running	—	15
30	9	-21	Paul Menard	160	—	Running	—	14
31	32	+1	Dave Blaney	160	—	Running	—	13
32	34	+2	David Reutimann	159	—	Running	—	12
33	18	-15	A.J. Allmendinger	158	—	Running	—	11
34	36	+2	Josh Wise	157	—	Running	—	0
35	38	+3	Timmy Hill	156	—	Running	—	9
36	7	-29	Kasey Kahne	141	—	Running	—	8
37	28	-9	David Ragan	121	—	DNF	—	7
38	37	-1	Landon Cassill	70	—	DNF	—	0
39	35	-4	J.J. Yeley	39	—	DNF	—	5
40	41	+1	Michael McDowell	33	—	DNF	—	4
41	43	+2	Scott Riggs	28	—	DNF	—	3
42	40	-2	Joe Nemechek	11	—	DNF	—	0
43	42	-1	Jason Leffler	8	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.9 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	1	+18.9	Moderate
6	Kyle Busch	17.1	6	+11.1	Coinflip
8	Denny Hamlin	6.2	8	-1.8	High Confidence
9	Kevin Harvick	12.7	9	+3.7	Coinflip
10	Joey Logano	14.0	10	+4.0	Coinflip
16	Brad Keselowski	11.9	16	-4.1	Coinflip
21	Aric Almirola	15.4	21	-5.6	Coinflip
22	Casey Mears	17.0	22	-5.0	Coinflip
23	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	23	-7.6	Coinflip
26	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	21.4	26	-4.6	High Confidence
33	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	33	-14.7	Moderate
35	Timmy Hill	24.7	35	-10.3	Moderate
39	J.J. Yeley	28.6	39	-10.4	High Confidence
40	Michael McDowell	17.0	40	-23.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 37 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 12.4 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 38 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 10.5 avg finish (7 wins), finishing P8 on the day.

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