NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Talladega

Talladega Superspeedway — May 5, 2013

David Ragan

Winner

192

Laps

Entries

Leaders

David Ragan won the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Talladega at Talladega Superspeedway on May 5, 2013, leading 4 of 192 laps. David Gilliland finished second; Carl Edwards rounded out the podium. The race featured 17 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, May 5, 2013

Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Season

2013

Winner

David Ragan

Leaders

17 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	19	+18	David Ragan	192	—	Running	4	47
2	31	+29	David Gilliland	192	—	Running	—	42
3	1	-2	Carl Edwards	192	—	Running	5	42
4	14	+10	Michael Waltrip	192	—	Running	—	40
5	8	+3	Jimmie Johnson	192	—	Running	16	40
6	34	+28	Regan Smith	192	—	Running	—	0
7	2	-5	Martin Truex, Jr.	192	—	Running	5	38
8	6	-2	Matt Kenseth	192	—	Running	142	38
9	36	+27	Scott Speed	192	—	Running	1	36
10	18	+8	Aric Almirola	192	—	Running	1	35
11	9	-2	Jeff Gordon	192	—	Running	1	34
12	27	+15	David Stremme	192	—	Running	—	32
13	21	+8	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	192	—	Running	2	32
14	3	-11	Marcos Ambrose	192	—	Running	—	30
15	11	-4	Brad Keselowski	192	—	Running	1	30
16	40	+24	Dave Blaney	192	—	Running	—	28
17	12	-5	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	192	—	Running	—	27
18	20	+2	Clint Bowyer	192	—	Running	—	26
19	26	+7	Josh Wise	192	—	Running	—	0
20	39	+19	Bobby Labonte	192	—	Running	5	25
21	38	+17	Michael McDowell	191	—	Running	—	23
22	42	+20	Landon Cassill	191	—	Running	—	0
23	28	+5	Jamie McMurray	191	—	Running	2	22
24	22	-2	Casey Mears	189	—	Running	—	20
25	30	+5	Juan Pablo Montoya	189	—	Running	—	19
26	16	-10	Paul Menard	188	—	Running	1	19
27	25	-2	Tony Stewart	187	—	Running	—	17
28	29	+1	Jeff Burton	187	—	Running	1	17
29	37	+8	Terry Labonte	185	—	Running	—	15
30	33	+3	Kurt Busch	182	—	Running	2	15
31	43	+12	J.J. Yeley	182	—	Running	—	13
32	5	-27	Ryan Newman	182	—	Running	2	13
33	23	-10	Danica Patrick	182	—	Running	—	11
34	7	-27	Denny Hamlin	148	—	DNF	—	10
35	4	-31	Joey Logano	143	—	DNF	—	9
36	17	-19	Greg Biffle	141	—	DNF	—	8
37	13	-24	Kyle Busch	138	—	DNF	—	7
38	32	-6	Travis Kvapil	128	—	DNF	—	6
39	41	+2	Joe Nemechek	53	—	DNF	—	0
40	24	-16	Kevin Harvick	47	—	DNF	1	5
41	35	-6	David Reutimann	43	—	DNF	—	3
42	10	-32	Kasey Kahne	42	—	DNF	—	2
43	15	-28	Trevor Bayne	22	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 12 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
5	Jimmie Johnson	18.8	5	+13.8	Coinflip
7	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.0	7	+13.0	Coinflip
10	Aric Almirola	15.1	10	+5.1	Coinflip
13	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	18.5	13	+5.5	Coinflip
15	Brad Keselowski	16.0	15	+1.0	Coinflip
21	Michael McDowell	18.8	21	-2.2	Coinflip
24	Casey Mears	18.5	24	-5.5	Coinflip
31	J.J. Yeley	25.5	31	-5.5	High Confidence
34	Denny Hamlin	16.0	34	-18.0	Coinflip
35	Joey Logano	20.5	35	-14.5	Moderate
37	Kyle Busch	15.1	37	-21.9	Coinflip
40	Kevin Harvick	19.4	40	-20.6	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

David Ragan: has 29 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 16.8 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Aric Almirola: was the model’s top pick based on 39 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 15.9 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P10 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P19. Track history: 39 starts, 18.5 avg finish.

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