NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Darlington

Darlington Raceway — May 11, 2013

Matt Kenseth

Winner

367

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Matt Kenseth won the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Darlington at Darlington Raceway on May 11, 2013, leading 17 of 367 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Jeff Gordon rounded out the podium. The race featured 4 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, May 11, 2013

Track

Darlington Raceway

Season

2013

Winner

Matt Kenseth

Leaders

4 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	7	+6	Matt Kenseth	367	—	Running	17	47
2	6	+4	Denny Hamlin	367	—	Running	—	42
3	8	+5	Jeff Gordon	367	—	Running	16	42
4	2	-2	Jimmie Johnson	367	—	Running	—	40
5	10	+5	Kevin Harvick	367	—	Running	—	39
6	3	-3	Kyle Busch	367	—	Running	265	40
7	17	+10	Carl Edwards	367	—	Running	—	37
8	12	+4	Juan Pablo Montoya	367	—	Running	—	36
9	16	+7	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	367	—	Running	—	35
10	21	+11	Ryan Newman	367	—	Running	—	34
11	13	+2	Clint Bowyer	367	—	Running	—	33
12	5	-7	Martin Truex, Jr.	367	—	Running	—	32
13	9	-4	Greg Biffle	367	—	Running	—	31
14	1	-13	Kurt Busch	367	—	Running	69	31
15	20	+5	Tony Stewart	367	—	Running	—	29
16	25	+9	Jamie McMurray	367	—	Running	—	28
17	4	-13	Kasey Kahne	367	—	Running	—	27
18	14	-4	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	366	—	Running	—	26
19	15	-4	Paul Menard	366	—	Running	—	25
20	18	-2	Aric Almirola	366	—	Running	—	24
21	11	-10	Jeff Burton	365	—	Running	—	23
22	30	+8	Joey Logano	365	—	Running	—	22
23	28	+5	Travis Kvapil	364	—	Running	—	21
24	27	+3	Regan Smith	363	—	Running	—	0
25	22	-3	Mark Martin	363	—	Running	—	19
26	23	-3	Bobby Labonte	363	—	Running	—	18
27	37	+10	Dave Blaney	362	—	Running	—	17
28	40	+12	Danica Patrick	362	—	Running	—	16
29	29	—	David Gilliland	362	—	Running	—	15
30	32	+2	Landon Cassill	360	—	Running	—	14
31	43	+12	Joe Nemechek	359	—	Running	—	0
32	26	-6	Brad Keselowski	358	—	Running	—	12
33	41	+8	Timmy Hill	358	—	Running	—	11
34	24	-10	Marcos Ambrose	358	—	Running	—	10
35	42	+7	J.J. Yeley	354	—	Running	—	9
36	33	-3	David Reutimann	327	—	Running	—	8
37	19	-18	Casey Mears	327	—	Running	—	7
38	34	-4	Josh Wise	326	—	Running	—	0
39	31	-8	David Ragan	318	—	Running	—	5
40	39	-1	David Stremme	230	—	DNF	—	4
41	36	-5	Scott Speed	77	—	DNF	—	3
42	35	-7	Michael McDowell	58	—	DNF	—	2
43	38	-5	Mike Bliss	18	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Denny Hamlin	6.2	2	+4.2	High Confidence
4	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	4	+15.9	Moderate
5	Kevin Harvick	12.7	5	+7.7	Coinflip
6	Kyle Busch	17.1	6	+11.1	Coinflip
10	Ryan Newman	21.4	10	+11.4	High Confidence
12	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	12	+3.4	Coinflip
18	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	21.0	18	+3.0	High Confidence
20	Aric Almirola	15.4	20	-4.6	Coinflip
22	Joey Logano	13.5	22	-8.5	Coinflip
32	Brad Keselowski	11.2	32	-20.8	Coinflip
33	Timmy Hill	24.7	33	-8.3	Moderate
35	J.J. Yeley	28.3	35	-6.7	High Confidence
37	Casey Mears	17.0	37	-20.0	Coinflip
42	Michael McDowell	16.9	42	-25.1	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Matt Kenseth: has 43 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 12.1 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 7.6 avg finish (10 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P20. Track history: 29 starts, 16.0 avg finish.

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