Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami
Homestead-Miami Speedway, November 16, 2014
Kevin Harvick
Winner
267
Laps
43
Entries
5
Leaders
Kevin Harvick won the 2014 Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 16, 2014, leading 54 of 267 laps. Ryan Newman finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, November 16, 2014
Track
Season
2014
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +4 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2 | 21 | +19 | Ryan Newman |
| 3 | 4 | +1 | Brad Keselowski |
| 4 | 16 | +12 | Paul Menard |
| 5 | 19 | +14 | Jamie McMurray |
| 6 | 3 | -3 | Matt Kenseth |
| 7 | 8 | +1 | Denny Hamlin |
| 8 | 6 | -2 | Clint Bowyer |
| 9 | 12 | +3 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 10 | 1 | -9 | Jeff Gordon |
| 11 | 2 | -9 | Kurt Busch |
| 12 | 23 | +11 | Kasey Kahne |
| 13 | 27 | +14 | Kyle Larson |
| 14 | 11 | -3 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 15 | 14 | -1 | Justin Allgaier |
| 16 | 9 | -7 | Joey Logano |
| 17 | 10 | -7 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 18 | 32 | +14 | Danica Patrick |
| 19 | 18 | -1 | Aric Almirola |
| 20 | 29 | +9 | Casey Mears |
| 21 | 38 | +17 | Michael McDowell |
| 22 | 22 | — | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 23 | 13 | -10 | Brian Vickers |
| 24 | 36 | +12 | Reed Sorenson |
| 25 | 24 | -1 | Austin Dillon |
| 26 | 42 | +16 | Cole Whitt |
| 27 | 17 | -10 | Marcos Ambrose |
| 28 | 30 | +2 | Brian Scott |
| 29 | 33 | +4 | Landon Cassill |
| 30 | 31 | +1 | David Ragan |
| 31 | 35 | +4 | David Gilliland |
| 32 | 37 | +5 | Josh Wise |
| 33 | 41 | +8 | Alex Bowman |
| 34 | 15 | -19 | Carl Edwards |
| 35 | 39 | +4 | Michael Annett |
| 36 | 43 | +7 | Brett Moffitt |
| 37 | 34 | -3 | J.J. Yeley |
| 38 | 40 | +2 | Blake Koch |
| 39 | 7 | -32 | Kyle Busch |
| 40 | 25 | -15 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 41 | 20 | -21 | Greg Biffle |
| 42 | 26 | -16 | Trevor Bayne |
| 43 | 28 | -15 | Tony Stewart |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 6.6 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 3 | +12.4 |
| 7 | Denny Hamlin | 6.2 | 7 | -0.8 |
| 9 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 9 | +10.9 |
| 13 | Kyle Larson | 13.1 | 13 | +0.1 |
| 15 | Justin Allgaier | 17.1 | 15 | +2.1 |
| 16 | Joey Logano | 11.9 | 16 | -4.1 |
| 17 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 17 | -1.6 |
| 20 | Casey Mears | 19.1 | 20 | -0.9 |
| 21 | Michael McDowell | 16.9 | 21 | -4.1 |
| 22 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 22 | -2.1 |
| 25 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 25 | -5.1 |
| 33 | Alex Bowman | 16.2 | 33 | -16.8 |
| 37 | J.J. Yeley | 28.6 | 37 | -8.4 |
| 40 | A.J. Allmendinger | 17.1 | 40 | -22.9 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kevin Harvick: has 36 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 8.7 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P7 on the day.
- Brad Keselowski: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P15. Track history: 26 starts, 15.4 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2014 Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami?
Kevin Harvick won the 2014 Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Where was the 2014 Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami held?
The 2014 Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 16, 2014.