Brickyard 400

Indianapolis Motor Speedway — July 27, 2014

Jeff Gordon

Winner

160

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jeff Gordon won the 2014 Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 27, 2014, leading 40 of 160 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Track

Indianapolis Motor Speedway

Season

2014

Winner

Jeff Gordon

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	2	+1	Jeff Gordon	160	—	Running	40	47
2	12	+10	Kyle Busch	160	—	Running	—	42
3	27	+24	Denny Hamlin	160	—	Running	18	42
4	13	+9	Matt Kenseth	160	—	Running	—	40
5	9	+4	Joey Logano	160	—	Running	10	40
6	10	+4	Kasey Kahne	160	—	Running	70	40
7	15	+8	Kyle Larson	160	—	Running	5	38
8	1	-7	Kevin Harvick	160	—	Running	12	37
9	23	+14	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	160	—	Running	—	35
10	17	+7	Austin Dillon	160	—	Running	1	35
11	4	-7	Ryan Newman	160	—	Running	—	33
12	3	-9	Brad Keselowski	160	—	Running	—	32
13	19	+6	Greg Biffle	160	—	Running	—	31
14	11	-3	Jimmie Johnson	160	—	Running	—	30
15	18	+3	Carl Edwards	160	—	Running	—	29
16	16	—	Clint Bowyer	160	—	Running	3	29
17	6	-11	Tony Stewart	160	—	Running	—	27
18	36	+18	A.J. Allmendinger	160	—	Running	—	26
19	5	-14	Brian Vickers	160	—	Running	—	25
20	24	+4	Jamie McMurray	160	—	Running	—	24
21	41	+20	Aric Almirola	160	—	Running	—	23
22	22	—	Marcos Ambrose	160	—	Running	—	22
23	8	-15	Juan Pablo Montoya	160	—	Running	—	21
24	21	-3	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	160	—	Running	—	20
25	25	—	Martin Truex, Jr.	160	—	Running	—	19
26	28	+2	Michael McDowell	160	—	Running	—	18
27	31	+4	Justin Allgaier	159	—	Running	—	17
28	7	-21	Kurt Busch	159	—	Running	—	16
29	30	+1	Josh Wise	159	—	Running	—	15
30	37	+7	Landon Cassill	158	—	Running	—	0
31	33	+2	Michael Annett	158	—	Running	1	14
32	39	+7	Cole Whitt	158	—	Running	—	12
33	26	-7	Casey Mears	158	—	Running	—	11
34	29	-5	Paul Menard	158	—	Running	—	10
35	38	+3	David Ragan	158	—	Running	—	9
36	34	-2	David Gilliland	157	—	Running	—	8
37	43	+6	Bobby Labonte	157	—	Running	—	7
38	42	+4	Reed Sorenson	156	—	Running	—	6
39	40	+1	Travis Kvapil	156	—	Running	—	5
40	35	-5	Alex Bowman	156	—	Running	—	4
41	32	-9	Ryan Truex	149	—	Running	—	3
42	14	-28	Danica Patrick	114	—	DNF	—	2
43	20	-23	Trevor Bayne	96	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.0 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Kyle Busch	17.0	2	+15.0	Coinflip
3	Denny Hamlin	8.2	3	+5.2	High Confidence
5	Joey Logano	14.7	5	+9.7	Coinflip
7	Kyle Larson	12.7	7	+5.7	Coinflip
10	Austin Dillon	17.1	10	+7.1	Coinflip
12	Brad Keselowski	11.2	12	-0.8	Moderate
14	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	14	+5.9	Moderate
18	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	18	+0.3	Moderate
24	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	24	-4.1	Moderate
25	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	25	-9.6	Coinflip
26	Michael McDowell	17.0	26	-9.0	Coinflip
27	Justin Allgaier	18.3	27	-8.7	Coinflip
33	Casey Mears	16.9	33	-16.1	Coinflip
40	Alex Bowman	13.5	40	-26.5	Coinflip
41	Ryan Truex	15.4	41	-25.6	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jeff Gordon: has 22 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 10.1 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 19 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 14.5 avg finish, finishing P3 on the day.
Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P17. Track history: 23 starts, 10.3 avg finish.

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