NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono

Pocono Raceway — August 3, 2014

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Winner

160

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. won the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono at Pocono Raceway on August 3, 2014, leading 14 of 160 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Joey Logano rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 3, 2014

Track

Pocono Raceway

Season

2014

Winner

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	9	+8	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	160	—	Running	14	47
2	6	+4	Kevin Harvick	160	—	Running	5	43
3	2	-1	Joey Logano	160	—	Running	30	42
4	14	+10	Clint Bowyer	160	—	Running	—	40
5	25	+20	Greg Biffle	160	—	Running	11	40
6	5	-1	Jeff Gordon	160	—	Running	63	40
7	8	+1	Jamie McMurray	160	—	Running	—	37
8	21	+13	Ryan Newman	160	—	Running	—	36
9	13	+4	Denny Hamlin	160	—	Running	—	35
10	12	+2	Kasey Kahne	160	—	Running	—	34
11	1	-10	Kyle Larson	160	—	Running	—	33
12	24	+12	Casey Mears	160	—	Running	—	32
13	4	-9	Kurt Busch	160	—	Running	30	32
14	27	+13	Marcos Ambrose	160	—	Running	—	30
15	11	-4	Austin Dillon	160	—	Running	—	29
16	22	+6	Justin Allgaier	160	—	Running	—	28
17	30	+13	David Gilliland	160	—	Running	1	28
18	23	+5	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	159	—	Running	—	26
19	39	+20	David Ragan	159	—	Running	—	25
20	37	+17	Ryan Truex	159	—	Running	—	24
21	33	+12	Cole Whitt	159	—	Running	—	23
22	38	+16	Michael Annett	159	—	Running	—	22
23	3	-20	Brad Keselowski	159	—	Running	—	21
24	31	+7	Josh Wise	159	—	Running	—	20
25	34	+9	Travis Kvapil	158	—	Running	—	19
26	40	+14	Dave Blaney	158	—	Running	—	18
27	35	+8	Reed Sorenson	158	—	Running	—	17
28	42	+14	Alex Kennedy	158	—	Running	—	16
29	26	-3	Carl Edwards	157	—	Running	—	15
30	10	-20	Danica Patrick	156	—	Running	—	14
31	36	+5	Alex Bowman	154	—	Running	—	13
32	19	-13	Martin Truex, Jr.	144	—	Running	—	12
33	29	-4	Paul Menard	143	—	Running	—	11
34	20	-14	A.J. Allmendinger	137	—	Running	2	11
35	28	-7	Aric Almirola	125	—	DNF	1	10
36	16	-20	Tony Stewart	124	—	DNF	—	8
37	15	-22	Brian Vickers	116	—	DNF	—	7
38	18	-20	Matt Kenseth	116	—	DNF	3	7
39	17	-22	Jimmie Johnson	111	—	DNF	—	5
40	41	+1	Joe Nemechek	88	—	DNF	—	0
41	32	-9	Landon Cassill	28	—	DNF	—	0
42	7	-35	Kyle Busch	23	—	DNF	—	2
43	43	—	Johnny Sauter	11	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Joey Logano	14.7	3	+11.7	Coinflip
9	Denny Hamlin	8.2	9	-0.8	High Confidence
11	Kyle Larson	12.7	11	+1.7	Coinflip
12	Casey Mears	16.9	12	+4.9	Coinflip
15	Austin Dillon	17.1	15	+2.1	Coinflip
16	Justin Allgaier	18.3	16	+2.3	Coinflip
18	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	18	+1.9	Moderate
20	Ryan Truex	15.4	20	-4.6	Coinflip
23	Brad Keselowski	11.2	23	-11.8	Moderate
31	Alex Bowman	13.5	31	-17.5	Coinflip
32	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	32	-16.6	Coinflip
34	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	34	-15.7	Moderate
39	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	39	-19.1	Moderate
42	Kyle Busch	17.0	42	-25.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: has 33 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 14.2 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 38 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 10.5 avg finish (7 wins), finishing P9 on the day.
Joey Logano: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P15. Track history: 32 starts, 18.1 avg finish.

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