Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami

Homestead-Miami Speedway — November 16, 2014

Kevin Harvick

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kevin Harvick won the 2014 Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 16, 2014, leading 54 of 267 laps. Ryan Newman finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, November 16, 2014

Track

Homestead-Miami Speedway

Season

2014

Winner

Kevin Harvick

Leaders

5 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	5	+4	Kevin Harvick	267	—	Running	54	43
2	21	+19	Ryan Newman	267	—	Running	—	42
3	4	+1	Brad Keselowski	267	—	Running	—	41
4	16	+12	Paul Menard	267	—	Running	—	40
5	19	+14	Jamie McMurray	267	—	Running	—	39
6	3	-3	Matt Kenseth	267	—	Running	—	38
7	8	+1	Denny Hamlin	267	—	Running	50	37
8	6	-2	Clint Bowyer	267	—	Running	—	36
9	12	+3	Jimmie Johnson	267	—	Running	—	35
10	1	-9	Jeff Gordon	267	—	Running	161	36
11	2	-9	Kurt Busch	267	—	Running	1	34
12	23	+11	Kasey Kahne	267	—	Running	—	32
13	27	+14	Kyle Larson	267	—	Running	—	31
14	11	-3	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	267	—	Running	—	30
15	14	-1	Justin Allgaier	267	—	Running	—	29
16	9	-7	Joey Logano	267	—	Running	—	28
17	10	-7	Martin Truex, Jr.	267	—	Running	—	27
18	32	+14	Danica Patrick	267	—	Running	—	26
19	18	-1	Aric Almirola	267	—	Running	—	25
20	29	+9	Casey Mears	267	—	Running	—	24
21	38	+17	Michael McDowell	267	—	Running	—	23
22	22	—	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	267	—	Running	—	22
23	13	-10	Brian Vickers	267	—	Running	—	21
24	36	+12	Reed Sorenson	267	—	Running	—	20
25	24	-1	Austin Dillon	267	—	Running	—	19
26	42	+16	Cole Whitt	267	—	Running	—	18
27	17	-10	Marcos Ambrose	267	—	Running	—	17
28	30	+2	Brian Scott	267	—	Running	—	0
29	33	+4	Landon Cassill	267	—	Running	—	0
30	31	+1	David Ragan	267	—	Running	—	14
31	35	+4	David Gilliland	267	—	Running	—	13
32	37	+5	Josh Wise	267	—	Running	—	12
33	41	+8	Alex Bowman	264	—	Running	—	11
34	15	-19	Carl Edwards	263	—	Running	—	10
35	39	+4	Michael Annett	263	—	Running	—	9
36	43	+7	Brett Moffitt	262	—	Running	—	8
37	34	-3	J.J. Yeley	254	—	Running	—	0
38	40	+2	Blake Koch	254	—	Running	1	0
39	7	-32	Kyle Busch	246	—	Running	—	5
40	25	-15	A.J. Allmendinger	235	—	Running	—	4
41	20	-21	Greg Biffle	220	—	DNF	—	3
42	26	-16	Trevor Bayne	204	—	DNF	—	0
43	28	-15	Tony Stewart	182	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.7 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Brad Keselowski	11.2	3	+8.2	Moderate
7	Denny Hamlin	8.2	7	+1.2	High Confidence
9	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	9	+10.9	Moderate
13	Kyle Larson	12.7	13	-0.3	Coinflip
15	Justin Allgaier	18.3	15	+3.3	Coinflip
16	Joey Logano	14.7	16	-1.3	Coinflip
17	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	17	-1.6	Coinflip
20	Casey Mears	16.9	20	-3.1	Coinflip
21	Michael McDowell	17.0	21	-4.0	Coinflip
22	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	22	-2.1	Moderate
25	Austin Dillon	17.1	25	-7.9	Coinflip
33	Alex Bowman	13.5	33	-19.5	Coinflip
37	J.J. Yeley	28.8	37	-8.2	High Confidence
39	Kyle Busch	17.0	39	-22.0	Coinflip
40	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	40	-21.7	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kevin Harvick: has 35 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 8.2 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P7 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P9 vs predicted P20. Track history: 23 starts, 15.2 avg finish.

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