NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol

Bristol Motor Speedway — August 23, 2014

Joey Logano

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Joey Logano won the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 23, 2014, leading 76 of 500 laps. Brad Keselowski finished second; Matt Kenseth rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, August 23, 2014

Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Season

2014

Winner

Joey Logano

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	5	+4	Joey Logano	500	—	Running	76	47
2	9	+7	Brad Keselowski	500	—	Running	46	43
3	16	+13	Matt Kenseth	500	—	Running	62	42
4	6	+2	Jimmie Johnson	500	—	Running	—	40
5	7	+2	Kurt Busch	500	—	Running	—	39
6	21	+15	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	500	—	Running	—	38
7	3	-4	Carl Edwards	500	—	Running	—	37
8	18	+10	Jamie McMurray	500	—	Running	148	38
9	17	+8	Paul Menard	500	—	Running	—	35
10	8	-2	Greg Biffle	500	—	Running	—	34
11	1	-10	Kevin Harvick	500	—	Running	75	34
12	40	+28	Kyle Larson	500	—	Running	—	32
13	11	-2	Ryan Newman	500	—	Running	—	31
14	22	+8	A.J. Allmendinger	500	—	Running	—	30
15	25	+10	Jeff Burton	499	—	Running	—	29
16	2	-14	Jeff Gordon	499	—	Running	17	29
17	14	-3	Clint Bowyer	498	—	Running	—	27
18	28	+10	Michael McDowell	498	—	Running	—	26
19	19	—	Justin Allgaier	497	—	Running	—	25
20	23	+3	Martin Truex, Jr.	497	—	Running	—	24
21	15	-6	Brian Vickers	497	—	Running	—	23
22	39	+17	Landon Cassill	497	—	Running	—	0
23	29	+6	David Ragan	496	—	Running	—	21
24	36	+12	Reed Sorenson	496	—	Running	—	20
25	32	+7	David Gilliland	495	—	Running	—	19
26	43	+17	Casey Mears	495	—	Running	—	18
27	24	-3	Danica Patrick	493	—	Running	—	17
28	26	-2	Austin Dillon	493	—	Running	—	16
29	30	+1	Josh Wise	492	—	Running	—	15
30	34	+4	Cole Whitt	492	—	Running	—	14
31	41	+10	David Stremme	491	—	Running	—	13
32	27	-5	Alex Bowman	489	—	Running	—	12
33	37	+4	J.J. Yeley	489	—	Running	—	0
34	10	-24	Marcos Ambrose	480	—	Running	—	10
35	12	-23	Kasey Kahne	477	—	Running	40	10
36	4	-32	Kyle Busch	442	—	Running	8	9
37	33	-4	Ryan Truex	338	—	DNF	—	7
38	38	—	Michael Annett	243	—	DNF	—	6
39	20	-19	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	176	—	DNF	—	5
40	13	-27	Denny Hamlin	160	—	DNF	28	5
41	42	+1	Aric Almirola	123	—	DNF	—	3
42	31	-11	Brett Moffitt	78	—	DNF	—	2
43	35	-8	Dave Blaney	37	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Joey Logano	12.1	1	+11.1	Coinflip
2	Brad Keselowski	12.0	2	+10.0	Coinflip
4	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	4	+13.7	Moderate
6	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	20.1	6	+14.1	Moderate
12	Kyle Larson	8.6	12	-3.4	Moderate
14	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	14	+4.3	Moderate
18	Michael McDowell	15.0	18	-3.0	Coinflip
19	Justin Allgaier	17.7	19	-1.3	Moderate
20	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	20	-6.2	Coinflip
26	Casey Mears	18.0	26	-8.0	Moderate
28	Austin Dillon	17.0	28	-11.0	Coinflip
32	Alex Bowman	14.0	32	-18.0	Coinflip
33	J.J. Yeley	28.1	33	-4.9	High Confidence
36	Kyle Busch	15.6	36	-20.4	Coinflip
37	Ryan Truex	15.6	37	-21.4	Coinflip
40	Denny Hamlin	6.8	40	-33.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Joey Logano: has 44 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 13.1 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P40 on the day.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P20. Track history: 24 starts, 14.1 avg finish.

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