NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan

Michigan International Speedway — August 17, 2014

Jeff Gordon

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jeff Gordon won the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway on August 17, 2014, leading 68 of 200 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Joey Logano rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 17, 2014

Track

Michigan International Speedway

Season

2014

Winner

Jeff Gordon

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Jeff Gordon	200	—	Running	68	47
2	6	+4	Kevin Harvick	200	—	Running	—	42
3	2	-1	Joey Logano	200	—	Running	86	43
4	7	+3	Paul Menard	200	—	Running	—	40
5	25	+20	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	200	—	Running	4	40
6	19	+13	Clint Bowyer	200	—	Running	—	38
7	21	+14	Denny Hamlin	200	—	Running	—	37
8	5	-3	Brad Keselowski	200	—	Running	2	37
9	30	+21	Jimmie Johnson	200	—	Running	21	36
10	11	+1	Greg Biffle	200	—	Running	—	34
11	12	+1	Ryan Newman	200	—	Running	14	34
12	20	+8	Marcos Ambrose	200	—	Running	—	32
13	22	+9	A.J. Allmendinger	200	—	Running	—	31
14	9	-5	Jamie McMurray	200	—	Running	—	30
15	10	-5	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	200	—	Running	—	29
16	15	-1	Kasey Kahne	200	—	Running	2	29
17	26	+9	Casey Mears	200	—	Running	—	27
18	14	-4	Danica Patrick	200	—	Running	—	26
19	4	-15	Brian Vickers	199	—	Running	—	25
20	23	+3	Aric Almirola	199	—	Running	—	24
21	29	+8	David Gilliland	199	—	Running	—	23
22	8	-14	Austin Dillon	199	—	Running	—	22
23	3	-20	Carl Edwards	198	—	Running	—	21
24	34	+10	David Ragan	198	—	Running	—	20
25	36	+11	Cole Whitt	198	—	Running	—	19
26	32	+6	Alex Bowman	198	—	Running	—	18
27	40	+13	Reed Sorenson	197	—	Running	—	17
28	33	+5	Josh Wise	197	—	Running	—	16
29	43	+14	Landon Cassill	197	—	Running	—	0
30	31	+1	J.J. Yeley	197	—	Running	—	0
31	16	-15	Kurt Busch	196	—	Running	3	14
32	38	+6	Travis Kvapil	196	—	Running	—	12
33	37	+4	Dave Blaney	195	—	Running	—	11
34	41	+7	Alex Kennedy	195	—	Running	—	10
35	42	+7	Joe Nemechek	195	—	Running	—	0
36	39	+3	Martin Truex, Jr.	177	—	Running	—	8
37	27	-10	Jeff Burton	176	—	Running	—	7
38	18	-20	Matt Kenseth	170	—	Running	—	6
39	24	-15	Kyle Busch	159	—	DNF	—	5
40	35	-5	Michael Annett	155	—	DNF	—	4
41	28	-13	Trevor Bayne	153	—	DNF	—	0
42	17	-25	Justin Allgaier	97	—	DNF	—	2
43	13	-30	Kyle Larson	94	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Joey Logano	14.7	3	+11.7	Coinflip
7	Denny Hamlin	8.2	7	+1.2	High Confidence
8	Brad Keselowski	11.2	8	+3.2	Moderate
9	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	9	+10.9	Moderate
13	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	13	+5.3	Moderate
15	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	15	+4.9	Moderate
17	Casey Mears	16.9	17	-0.1	Coinflip
22	Austin Dillon	17.1	22	-4.9	Coinflip
26	Alex Bowman	13.5	26	-12.5	Coinflip
30	J.J. Yeley	28.8	30	-1.2	High Confidence
36	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	36	-20.6	Coinflip
39	Kyle Busch	17.0	39	-22.0	Coinflip
42	Justin Allgaier	18.3	42	-23.7	Coinflip
43	Kyle Larson	12.7	43	-30.3	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jeff Gordon: has 49 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 12.2 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P7 on the day.
Joey Logano: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P15. Track history: 37 starts, 11.6 avg finish.

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