NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono

Pocono Raceway — June 8, 2014

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Winner

160

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. won the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono at Pocono Raceway on June 8, 2014, leading 11 of 160 laps. Brad Keselowski finished second; Kurt Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 8, 2014

Track

Pocono Raceway

Season

2014

Winner

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	8	+7	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	160	—	Running	11	47
2	3	+1	Brad Keselowski	160	—	Running	95	44
3	2	-1	Kurt Busch	160	—	Running	5	42
4	1	-3	Denny Hamlin	160	—	Running	4	41
5	14	+9	Kyle Larson	160	—	Running	7	40
6	20	+14	Jimmie Johnson	160	—	Running	5	39
7	15	+8	Ryan Newman	160	—	Running	—	37
8	5	-3	Jeff Gordon	160	—	Running	2	37
9	17	+8	Martin Truex, Jr.	160	—	Running	—	35
10	18	+8	Jamie McMurray	160	—	Running	—	34
11	19	+8	Clint Bowyer	160	—	Running	—	33
12	6	-6	Kyle Busch	160	—	Running	—	32
13	12	-1	Tony Stewart	160	—	Running	24	32
14	4	-10	Kevin Harvick	160	—	Running	—	30
15	28	+13	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	160	—	Running	—	29
16	13	-3	Greg Biffle	160	—	Running	—	28
17	11	-6	Austin Dillon	160	—	Running	—	27
18	32	+14	David Ragan	160	—	Running	—	26
19	9	-10	Brian Vickers	160	—	Running	1	26
20	30	+10	Michael Annett	160	—	Running	—	24
21	21	—	A.J. Allmendinger	160	—	Running	—	23
22	22	—	Aric Almirola	160	—	Running	—	22
23	25	+2	Casey Mears	160	—	Running	—	21
24	29	+5	Marcos Ambrose	160	—	Running	—	20
25	26	+1	Matt Kenseth	160	—	Running	—	19
26	23	-3	Paul Menard	160	—	Running	—	18
27	24	-3	Justin Allgaier	160	—	Running	6	18
28	35	+7	David Gilliland	160	—	Running	—	16
29	33	+4	Travis Kvapil	160	—	Running	—	15
30	40	+10	Cole Whitt	159	—	Running	—	14
31	34	+3	Alex Bowman	159	—	Running	—	13
32	41	+9	Ryan Truex	159	—	Running	—	12
33	31	-2	Landon Cassill	158	—	Running	—	0
34	36	+2	Reed Sorenson	158	—	Running	—	10
35	37	+2	Josh Wise	158	—	Running	—	9
36	39	+3	Timmy Hill	158	—	Running	—	8
37	16	-21	Danica Patrick	158	—	Running	—	7
38	38	—	J.J. Yeley	157	—	Running	—	0
39	42	+3	Alex Kennedy	156	—	Running	—	5
40	7	-33	Joey Logano	150	—	Running	—	4
41	10	-31	Carl Edwards	143	—	Running	—	3
42	27	-15	Kasey Kahne	142	—	Running	—	2
43	43	—	Dave Blaney	142	—	Running	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Brad Keselowski	11.2	2	+9.2	Moderate
4	Denny Hamlin	8.2	4	+4.2	High Confidence
5	Kyle Larson	12.7	5	+7.7	Coinflip
6	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	6	+13.9	Moderate
9	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	9	+6.4	Coinflip
12	Kyle Busch	17.0	12	+5.0	Coinflip
15	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	15	+4.9	Moderate
17	Austin Dillon	17.1	17	+0.1	Coinflip
21	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	21	-2.7	Moderate
23	Casey Mears	16.9	23	-6.1	Coinflip
27	Justin Allgaier	18.3	27	-8.7	Coinflip
31	Alex Bowman	13.5	31	-17.5	Coinflip
32	Ryan Truex	15.4	32	-16.6	Coinflip
36	Timmy Hill	23.9	36	-12.1	High Confidence
38	J.J. Yeley	28.8	38	-9.2	High Confidence
40	Joey Logano	14.7	40	-25.3	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: has 33 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 14.2 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 38 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 10.5 avg finish (7 wins), finishing P4 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P20. Track history: 37 starts, 12.4 avg finish.

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