NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Talladega

Talladega Superspeedway — October 19, 2014

Brad Keselowski

Winner

194

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Brad Keselowski won the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Talladega at Talladega Superspeedway on October 19, 2014, leading 12 of 194 laps. Matt Kenseth finished second; Clint Bowyer rounded out the podium. The race featured 19 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 19, 2014

Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Season

2014

Winner

Brad Keselowski

Leaders

19 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	5	+4	Brad Keselowski	194	—	Running	12	47
2	13	+11	Matt Kenseth	194	—	Running	1	43
3	33	+30	Clint Bowyer	194	—	Running	—	41
4	29	+25	Landon Cassill	194	—	Running	1	0
5	11	+6	Ryan Newman	194	—	Running	9	40
6	7	+1	Travis Kvapil	194	—	Running	—	38
7	18	+11	Kurt Busch	194	—	Running	—	37
8	26	+18	Marcos Ambrose	194	—	Running	—	36
9	39	+30	Kevin Harvick	194	—	Running	2	36
10	19	+9	Casey Mears	194	—	Running	—	34
11	40	+29	Joey Logano	194	—	Running	—	33
12	8	-4	Kasey Kahne	194	—	Running	12	33
13	30	+17	Austin Dillon	194	—	Running	—	31
14	36	+22	Reed Sorenson	194	—	Running	—	30
15	22	+7	Cole Whitt	194	—	Running	1	30
16	34	+18	Michael Waltrip	194	—	Running	—	28
17	42	+25	Kyle Larson	194	—	Running	—	27
18	38	+20	Denny Hamlin	194	—	Running	1	27
19	27	+8	Danica Patrick	194	—	Running	7	26
20	1	-19	Brian Vickers	194	—	Running	—	24
21	15	-6	Carl Edwards	194	—	Running	—	23
22	4	-18	Ryan Blaney	194	—	Running	15	0
23	3	-20	A.J. Allmendinger	194	—	Running	—	21
24	2	-22	Jimmie Johnson	194	—	Running	84	22
25	24	-1	Greg Biffle	194	—	Running	1	20
26	43	+17	Jeff Gordon	194	—	Running	3	19
27	12	-15	Martin Truex, Jr.	194	—	Running	1	18
28	35	+7	Josh Wise	194	—	Running	—	16
29	21	-8	David Gilliland	194	—	Running	3	16
30	25	-5	David Ragan	194	—	Running	2	15
31	28	-3	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	194	—	Running	31	14
32	16	-16	Trevor Bayne	194	—	Running	—	0
33	9	-24	Terry Labonte	193	—	Running	—	11
34	37	+3	Tony Stewart	190	—	Running	5	11
35	31	-4	Jamie McMurray	189	—	Running	3	10
36	20	-16	Paul Menard	188	—	Running	—	8
37	10	-27	Michael Annett	187	—	Running	—	7
38	23	-15	Mike Wallace	186	—	Running	—	0
39	17	-22	Aric Almirola	166	—	Running	—	5
40	41	+1	Kyle Busch	145	—	DNF	—	4
41	6	-35	Michael McDowell	127	—	DNF	—	3
42	32	-10	J.J. Yeley	102	—	DNF	—	0
43	14	-29	Alex Bowman	102	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Brad Keselowski	16.0	1	+15.0	Coinflip
10	Casey Mears	18.5	10	+8.5	Coinflip
11	Joey Logano	20.5	11	+9.5	Moderate
13	Austin Dillon	23.4	13	+10.4	High Confidence
17	Kyle Larson	18.5	17	+1.5	Coinflip
18	Denny Hamlin	16.0	18	-2.0	Coinflip
22	Ryan Blaney	13.9	22	-8.1	Moderate
23	A.J. Allmendinger	20.1	23	-2.9	Moderate
24	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	24	-5.1	Coinflip
27	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	27	-6.9	Coinflip
40	Kyle Busch	15.1	40	-24.9	Coinflip
41	Michael McDowell	20.0	41	-21.0	Coinflip
42	J.J. Yeley	25.2	42	-16.8	High Confidence
43	Alex Bowman	15.1	43	-27.9	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Brad Keselowski: has 37 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 16.2 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 16.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P22 on the day.

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