NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MIAMI
Homestead-Miami Speedway, November 22, 2015
Kyle Busch
Winner
267
Laps
43
Entries
8
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MIAMI at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 22, 2015, leading 41 of 267 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, November 22, 2015
Track
Season
2015
Winner
Leaders
8 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | +2 | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 13 | +11 | Kevin Harvick |
| 3 | 8 | +5 | Brad Keselowski |
| 4 | 2 | -2 | Joey Logano |
| 5 | 23 | +18 | Kyle Larson |
| 6 | 5 | -1 | Jeff Gordon |
| 7 | 19 | +12 | Matt Kenseth |
| 8 | 15 | +7 | Kurt Busch |
| 9 | 12 | +3 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 10 | 1 | -9 | Denny Hamlin |
| 11 | 7 | -4 | Carl Edwards |
| 12 | 11 | -1 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 13 | 22 | +9 | Jamie McMurray |
| 14 | 10 | -4 | Austin Dillon |
| 15 | 21 | +6 | Greg Biffle |
| 16 | 4 | -12 | Ryan Newman |
| 17 | 6 | -11 | Ryan Blaney |
| 18 | 26 | +8 | Trevor Bayne |
| 19 | 18 | -1 | Kasey Kahne |
| 20 | 20 | — | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 21 | 17 | -4 | Paul Menard |
| 22 | 16 | -6 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 23 | 25 | +2 | Ty Dillon |
| 24 | 35 | +11 | Danica Patrick |
| 25 | 28 | +3 | Sam Hornish Jr. |
| 26 | 33 | +7 | Alex Bowman |
| 27 | 38 | +11 | David Ragan |
| 28 | 40 | +12 | Cole Whitt |
| 29 | 36 | +7 | Tony Stewart |
| 30 | 39 | +9 | Michael Annett |
| 31 | 42 | +11 | Brett Moffitt |
| 32 | 41 | +9 | David Gilliland |
| 33 | 29 | -4 | Michael McDowell |
| 34 | 31 | -3 | J.J. Yeley |
| 35 | 34 | -1 | Landon Cassill |
| 36 | 30 | -6 | Justin Allgaier |
| 37 | 37 | — | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 38 | 43 | +5 | Ryan Preece |
| 39 | 32 | -7 | Josh Wise |
| 40 | 9 | -31 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 41 | 14 | -27 | Aric Almirola |
| 42 | 27 | -15 | Casey Mears |
| 43 | 24 | -19 | Clint Bowyer |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 17 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 3 | +12.4 |
| 4 | Joey Logano | 11.9 | 4 | +7.9 |
| 5 | Kyle Larson | 13.1 | 5 | +8.1 |
| 9 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 9 | +10.9 |
| 10 | Denny Hamlin | 6.2 | 10 | -3.8 |
| 12 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 12 | +3.4 |
| 14 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 14 | +5.9 |
| 17 | Ryan Blaney | 8.2 | 17 | -8.8 |
| 20 | A.J. Allmendinger | 17.1 | 20 | -2.9 |
| 22 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 22 | -2.1 |
| 23 | Ty Dillon | 22.9 | 23 | -0.1 |
| 26 | Alex Bowman | 16.2 | 26 | -9.8 |
| 33 | Michael McDowell | 16.9 | 33 | -16.1 |
| 34 | J.J. Yeley | 28.6 | 34 | -5.4 |
| 36 | Justin Allgaier | 17.1 | 36 | -18.9 |
| 38 | Ryan Preece | 13.3 | 38 | -24.7 |
| 42 | Casey Mears | 19.1 | 42 | -22.9 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 38 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 12.1 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P10 on the day.
- Brad Keselowski: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P15. Track history: 26 starts, 15.4 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MIAMI?
Kyle Busch won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MIAMI at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Where was the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MIAMI held?
The 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MIAMI was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 22, 2015.