NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT DAYTONA

Daytona International Speedway — July 5, 2015

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Winner

161

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT DAYTONA at Daytona International Speedway on July 5, 2015, leading 96 of 161 laps. Jimmie Johnson finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 12 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, July 5, 2015

Track

Daytona International Speedway

Season

2015

Winner

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Leaders

12 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	161	—	Running	96	48
2	12	+10	Jimmie Johnson	161	—	Running	35	43
3	35	+32	Denny Hamlin	161	—	Running	10	42
4	34	+30	Kevin Harvick	161	—	Running	—	40
5	28	+23	Kurt Busch	161	—	Running	—	39
6	23	+17	Jeff Gordon	161	—	Running	—	38
7	2	-5	Austin Dillon	161	—	Running	8	38
8	17	+9	Ryan Newman	161	—	Running	1	37
9	5	-4	Trevor Bayne	161	—	Running	—	35
10	3	-7	Clint Bowyer	161	—	Running	1	35
11	15	+4	Casey Mears	161	—	Running	—	33
12	8	-4	David Ragan	161	—	Running	—	32
13	22	+9	Landon Cassill	161	—	Running	—	0
14	31	+17	Tony Stewart	161	—	Running	—	30
15	9	-6	Jamie McMurray	161	—	Running	—	29
16	4	-12	Paul Menard	161	—	Running	—	28
17	13	-4	Kyle Busch	161	—	Running	—	27
18	21	+3	Justin Allgaier	161	—	Running	—	26
19	30	+11	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	161	—	Running	—	25
20	25	+5	Greg Biffle	161	—	Running	—	24
21	7	-14	A.J. Allmendinger	161	—	Running	—	23
22	33	+11	Joey Logano	161	—	Running	—	22
23	20	-3	Matt Kenseth	161	—	Running	1	22
24	37	+13	Alex Bowman	161	—	Running	—	20
25	29	+4	Cole Whitt	161	—	Running	—	19
26	41	+15	Matt DiBenedetto	161	—	Running	1	19
27	14	-13	Brett Moffitt	161	—	Running	1	18
28	43	+15	Brendan Gaughan	161	—	Running	—	0
29	32	+3	Brad Keselowski	159	—	Running	—	15
30	11	-19	Sam Hornish Jr.	154	—	Running	—	14
31	42	+11	Josh Wise	154	—	Running	1	14
32	10	-22	Kasey Kahne	149	—	Running	5	13
33	39	+6	J.J. Yeley	139	—	Running	1	0
34	36	+2	Aric Almirola	137	—	Running	—	10
35	27	-8	Danica Patrick	126	—	DNF	—	9
36	40	+4	Jeb Burton	121	—	DNF	—	8
37	18	-19	Michael Annett	110	—	DNF	—	7
38	19	-19	Martin Truex, Jr.	105	—	DNF	—	6
39	16	-23	Kyle Larson	103	—	DNF	—	5
40	6	-34	David Gilliland	96	—	DNF	—	4
41	24	-17	Carl Edwards	85	—	DNF	—	3
42	26	-16	Brian Scott	85	—	DNF	—	0
43	38	-5	Bobby Labonte	2	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	2	+16.9	Coinflip
3	Denny Hamlin	16.0	3	+13.0	Coinflip
7	Austin Dillon	23.4	7	+16.4	High Confidence
11	Casey Mears	18.5	11	+7.5	Coinflip
17	Kyle Busch	15.1	17	-1.9	Coinflip
18	Justin Allgaier	21.1	18	+3.1	Moderate
19	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	18.5	19	-0.5	Coinflip
21	A.J. Allmendinger	20.1	21	-0.9	Moderate
22	Joey Logano	20.5	22	-1.5	Moderate
24	Alex Bowman	15.1	24	-8.9	Coinflip
29	Brad Keselowski	16.0	29	-13.0	Coinflip
33	J.J. Yeley	25.2	33	-7.8	High Confidence
38	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	38	-17.9	Coinflip
39	Kyle Larson	18.5	39	-20.5	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: has 39 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 13.8 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 69 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 17.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P17 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P19. Track history: 42 starts, 17.7 avg finish.

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