NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MIAMI

Homestead-Miami Speedway — November 22, 2015

Kyle Busch

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MIAMI at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 22, 2015, leading 41 of 267 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, November 22, 2015

Track

Homestead-Miami Speedway

Season

2015

Winner

Kyle Busch

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	3	+2	Kyle Busch	267	—	Running	41	43
2	13	+11	Kevin Harvick	267	—	Running	46	42
3	8	+5	Brad Keselowski	267	—	Running	86	43
4	2	-2	Joey Logano	267	—	Running	72	41
5	23	+18	Kyle Larson	267	—	Running	2	40
6	5	-1	Jeff Gordon	267	—	Running	9	38
7	19	+12	Matt Kenseth	267	—	Running	—	37
8	15	+7	Kurt Busch	267	—	Running	—	36
9	12	+3	Jimmie Johnson	267	—	Running	—	35
10	1	-9	Denny Hamlin	267	—	Running	—	34
11	7	-4	Carl Edwards	267	—	Running	8	34
12	11	-1	Martin Truex, Jr.	267	—	Running	3	32
13	22	+9	Jamie McMurray	267	—	Running	—	31
14	10	-4	Austin Dillon	267	—	Running	—	30
15	21	+6	Greg Biffle	267	—	Running	—	29
16	4	-12	Ryan Newman	267	—	Running	—	28
17	6	-11	Ryan Blaney	267	—	Running	—	0
18	26	+8	Trevor Bayne	267	—	Running	—	26
19	18	-1	Kasey Kahne	267	—	Running	—	25
20	20	—	A.J. Allmendinger	266	—	Running	—	24
21	17	-4	Paul Menard	266	—	Running	—	23
22	16	-6	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	266	—	Running	—	22
23	25	+2	Ty Dillon	266	—	Running	—	0
24	35	+11	Danica Patrick	266	—	Running	—	20
25	28	+3	Sam Hornish Jr.	266	—	Running	—	19
26	33	+7	Alex Bowman	265	—	Running	—	18
27	38	+11	David Ragan	265	—	Running	—	17
28	40	+12	Cole Whitt	265	—	Running	—	16
29	36	+7	Tony Stewart	265	—	Running	—	15
30	39	+9	Michael Annett	264	—	Running	—	14
31	42	+11	Brett Moffitt	264	—	Running	—	13
32	41	+9	David Gilliland	264	—	Running	—	12
33	29	-4	Michael McDowell	264	—	Running	—	11
34	31	-3	J.J. Yeley	264	—	Running	—	0
35	34	-1	Landon Cassill	263	—	Running	—	0
36	30	-6	Justin Allgaier	263	—	Running	—	8
37	37	—	Matt DiBenedetto	263	—	Running	—	7
38	43	+5	Ryan Preece	262	—	Running	—	6
39	32	-7	Josh Wise	247	—	Running	—	5
40	9	-31	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	241	—	Running	—	4
41	14	-27	Aric Almirola	209	—	DNF	—	3
42	27	-15	Casey Mears	104	—	DNF	—	2
43	24	-19	Clint Bowyer	45	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 17 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Brad Keselowski	11.2	3	+8.2	Moderate
4	Joey Logano	14.7	4	+10.7	Coinflip
5	Kyle Larson	12.7	5	+7.7	Coinflip
9	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	9	+10.9	Moderate
10	Denny Hamlin	8.2	10	-1.8	High Confidence
12	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	12	+3.4	Coinflip
14	Austin Dillon	17.1	14	+3.1	Coinflip
17	Ryan Blaney	9.2	17	-7.8	High Confidence
20	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	20	-1.7	Moderate
22	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	22	-2.1	Moderate
23	Ty Dillon	23.4	23	+0.4	High Confidence
26	Alex Bowman	13.5	26	-12.5	Coinflip
33	Michael McDowell	17.0	33	-16.0	Coinflip
34	J.J. Yeley	28.8	34	-5.2	High Confidence
36	Justin Allgaier	18.3	36	-17.7	Coinflip
38	Ryan Preece	10.1	38	-27.9	Moderate
42	Casey Mears	16.9	42	-25.1	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kyle Busch: has 38 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 12.1 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P10 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P9 vs predicted P20. Track history: 23 starts, 15.2 avg finish.

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