NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT KANSAS

Kansas Speedway — October 18, 2015

Joey Logano

Winner

269

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Joey Logano won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT KANSAS at Kansas Speedway on October 18, 2015, leading 42 of 269 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Jimmie Johnson rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Track

Kansas Speedway

Season

2015

Winner

Joey Logano

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	14	+13	Joey Logano	269	—	Running	42	47
2	5	+3	Denny Hamlin	269	—	Running	—	42
3	21	+18	Jimmie Johnson	269	—	Running	5	42
4	24	+20	Kasey Kahne	269	—	Running	—	40
5	3	-2	Kyle Busch	269	—	Running	—	39
6	9	+3	Kurt Busch	269	—	Running	—	38
7	8	+1	Ryan Blaney	269	—	Running	5	0
8	2	-6	Carl Edwards	269	—	Running	6	37
9	1	-8	Brad Keselowski	269	—	Running	28	36
10	6	-4	Jeff Gordon	269	—	Running	—	34
11	10	-1	Ryan Newman	269	—	Running	—	33
12	16	+4	Brian Scott	269	—	Running	—	0
13	18	+5	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	269	—	Running	—	31
14	11	-3	Matt Kenseth	269	—	Running	153	32
15	7	-8	Martin Truex, Jr.	269	—	Running	—	29
16	4	-12	Kevin Harvick	268	—	Running	21	29
17	12	-5	Greg Biffle	268	—	Running	—	27
18	19	+1	Trevor Bayne	268	—	Running	—	26
19	13	-6	Paul Menard	268	—	Running	7	26
20	28	+8	Jamie McMurray	268	—	Running	—	24
21	15	-6	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	267	—	Running	—	23
22	29	+7	Danica Patrick	267	—	Running	—	22
23	38	+15	Casey Mears	267	—	Running	2	22
24	23	-1	Aric Almirola	267	—	Running	—	20
25	22	-3	David Ragan	266	—	Running	—	19
26	30	+4	Justin Allgaier	266	—	Running	—	18
27	27	—	A.J. Allmendinger	265	—	Running	—	17
28	31	+3	Sam Hornish Jr.	265	—	Running	—	16
29	20	-9	Kyle Larson	265	—	Running	—	15
30	34	+4	Matt DiBenedetto	265	—	Running	—	14
31	32	+1	Alex Bowman	264	—	Running	—	13
32	35	+3	Brett Moffitt	264	—	Running	—	12
33	39	+6	Cole Whitt	264	—	Running	—	11
34	37	+3	Michael Annett	263	—	Running	—	10
35	17	-18	Tony Stewart	263	—	Running	—	9
36	33	-3	David Gilliland	262	—	Running	—	8
37	40	+3	Jeb Burton	260	—	Running	—	7
38	42	+4	Reed Sorenson	258	—	Running	—	6
39	43	+4	Will Kimmel	255	—	Running	—	5
40	26	-14	Clint Bowyer	170	—	DNF	—	4
41	25	-16	Austin Dillon	154	—	DNF	—	3
42	36	-6	J.J. Yeley	144	—	DNF	—	0
43	41	-2	Landon Cassill	127	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Joey Logano	14.7	1	+13.7	Coinflip
2	Denny Hamlin	8.2	2	+6.2	High Confidence
3	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	3	+16.9	Moderate
5	Kyle Busch	17.0	5	+12.0	Coinflip
7	Ryan Blaney	9.2	7	+2.2	High Confidence
9	Brad Keselowski	11.2	9	+2.2	Moderate
13	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	13	+6.9	Moderate
15	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	15	+0.4	Coinflip
23	Casey Mears	16.9	23	-6.1	Coinflip
26	Justin Allgaier	18.3	26	-7.7	Coinflip
27	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	27	-8.7	Moderate
29	Kyle Larson	12.7	29	-16.3	Coinflip
31	Alex Bowman	13.5	31	-17.5	Coinflip
41	Austin Dillon	17.1	41	-23.9	Coinflip
42	J.J. Yeley	28.8	42	-13.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Joey Logano: has 41 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 15.4 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 42 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 12.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P20. Track history: 26 starts, 9.2 avg finish.

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