NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT DARLINGTON

Darlington Raceway — September 6, 2015

Carl Edwards

Winner

367

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Carl Edwards won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT DARLINGTON at Darlington Raceway on September 6, 2015, leading 15 of 367 laps. Brad Keselowski finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, September 6, 2015

Track

Darlington Raceway

Season

2015

Winner

Carl Edwards

Leaders

11 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	13	+12	Carl Edwards	367	—	Running	15	47
2	1	-1	Brad Keselowski	367	—	Running	196	44
3	6	+3	Denny Hamlin	367	—	Running	57	42
4	4	—	Joey Logano	367	—	Running	29	41
5	3	-2	Kevin Harvick	367	—	Running	44	40
6	2	-4	Kurt Busch	367	—	Running	7	39
7	10	+3	Kyle Busch	367	—	Running	3	38
8	26	+18	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	367	—	Running	—	36
9	7	-2	Martin Truex, Jr.	367	—	Running	—	35
10	16	+6	Kyle Larson	367	—	Running	3	35
11	11	—	Aric Almirola	367	—	Running	—	33
12	15	+3	Kasey Kahne	367	—	Running	2	33
13	23	+10	Ryan Newman	367	—	Running	—	31
14	20	+6	Jamie McMurray	367	—	Running	—	30
15	17	+2	Tony Stewart	367	—	Running	10	30
16	5	-11	Jeff Gordon	367	—	Running	—	28
17	28	+11	Clint Bowyer	367	—	Running	—	27
18	24	+6	Greg Biffle	367	—	Running	—	26
19	19	—	Jimmie Johnson	367	—	Running	—	25
20	31	+11	Landon Cassill	367	—	Running	—	0
21	14	-7	Matt Kenseth	367	—	Running	—	23
22	29	+7	Austin Dillon	367	—	Running	—	22
23	34	+11	A.J. Allmendinger	367	—	Running	—	21
24	35	+11	Alex Bowman	367	—	Running	—	20
25	25	—	Matt DiBenedetto	367	—	Running	—	19
26	12	-14	Paul Menard	367	—	Running	—	18
27	38	+11	David Gilliland	367	—	Running	1	18
28	33	+5	Sam Hornish Jr.	367	—	Running	—	16
29	32	+3	Casey Mears	366	—	Running	—	15
30	9	-21	Ryan Blaney	366	—	Running	—	0
31	41	+10	Jeb Burton	364	—	Running	—	13
32	42	+10	Mike Bliss	363	—	Running	—	0
33	27	-6	Justin Allgaier	354	—	Running	—	11
34	36	+2	J.J. Yeley	348	—	Running	—	0
35	18	-17	Trevor Bayne	342	—	Running	—	9
36	40	+4	Brett Moffitt	332	—	Running	—	8
37	43	+6	T.J. Bell	325	—	Running	—	7
38	8	-30	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	313	—	Running	—	6
39	39	—	Michael Annett	300	—	DNF	—	5
40	21	-19	David Ragan	275	—	DNF	—	4
41	22	-19	Chase Elliott	227	—	DNF	—	0
42	30	-12	Danica Patrick	190	—	DNF	—	2
43	37	-6	Cole Whitt	5	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.6 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Brad Keselowski	11.2	2	+9.2	Moderate
3	Denny Hamlin	8.2	3	+5.2	High Confidence
4	Joey Logano	14.7	4	+10.7	Coinflip
7	Kyle Busch	17.0	7	+10.0	Coinflip
9	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	9	+6.4	Coinflip
10	Kyle Larson	12.7	10	+2.7	Coinflip
19	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	19	+0.9	Moderate
22	Austin Dillon	17.1	22	-4.9	Coinflip
23	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	23	-4.7	Moderate
24	Alex Bowman	13.5	24	-10.5	Coinflip
29	Casey Mears	16.9	29	-12.1	Coinflip
30	Ryan Blaney	9.2	30	-20.8	High Confidence
33	Justin Allgaier	18.3	33	-14.7	Coinflip
34	J.J. Yeley	28.8	34	-5.2	High Confidence
38	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	38	-18.1	Moderate
41	Chase Elliott	7.8	41	-33.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Carl Edwards: has 20 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 12.7 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 23 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 12.8 avg finish (1 win), finishing P41 on the day.
Joey Logano: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P15. Track history: 33 starts, 14.2 avg finish.

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