NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT BRISTOL

Bristol Motor Speedway — August 22, 2015

Joey Logano

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Joey Logano won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT BRISTOL at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 22, 2015, leading 176 of 500 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, August 22, 2015

Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Season

2015

Winner

Joey Logano

Leaders

5 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	5	+4	Joey Logano	500	—	Running	176	47
2	7	+5	Kevin Harvick	500	—	Running	—	42
3	1	-2	Denny Hamlin	500	—	Running	54	42
4	10	+6	Jimmie Johnson	500	—	Running	—	40
5	9	+4	Clint Bowyer	500	—	Running	—	39
6	6	—	Brad Keselowski	500	—	Running	4	39
7	3	-4	Carl Edwards	500	—	Running	74	38
8	2	-6	Kyle Busch	500	—	Running	192	38
9	20	+11	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	500	—	Running	—	35
10	18	+8	Ryan Newman	500	—	Running	—	34
11	21	+10	Jamie McMurray	500	—	Running	—	33
12	14	+2	Justin Allgaier	500	—	Running	—	32
13	16	+3	Austin Dillon	500	—	Running	—	31
14	11	-3	Kurt Busch	499	—	Running	—	30
15	22	+7	Trevor Bayne	498	—	Running	—	29
16	19	+3	Kasey Kahne	498	—	Running	—	28
17	31	+14	Aric Almirola	497	—	Running	—	27
18	26	+8	Sam Hornish Jr.	497	—	Running	—	26
19	40	+21	Tony Stewart	497	—	Running	—	25
20	24	+4	Jeff Gordon	496	—	Running	—	24
21	8	-13	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	496	—	Running	—	23
22	15	-7	Ryan Blaney	496	—	Running	—	0
23	28	+5	Casey Mears	496	—	Running	—	21
24	29	+5	Paul Menard	496	—	Running	—	20
25	17	-8	Greg Biffle	496	—	Running	—	19
26	25	-1	A.J. Allmendinger	495	—	Running	—	18
27	32	+5	Danica Patrick	495	—	Running	—	17
28	23	-5	Martin Truex, Jr.	495	—	Running	—	16
29	33	+4	Cole Whitt	495	—	Running	—	15
30	27	-3	Brett Moffitt	495	—	Running	—	14
31	30	-1	Michael McDowell	495	—	Running	—	13
32	36	+4	Alex Bowman	494	—	Running	—	12
33	42	+9	Matt DiBenedetto	493	—	Running	—	11
34	38	+4	J.J. Yeley	492	—	Running	—	0
35	34	-1	Josh Wise	491	—	Running	—	9
36	37	+1	David Gilliland	488	—	Running	—	8
37	43	+6	Mike Bliss	486	—	Running	—	0
38	39	+1	Landon Cassill	480	—	Running	—	0
39	41	+2	Timmy Hill	476	—	Running	—	0
40	4	-36	David Ragan	443	—	Running	—	4
41	12	-29	Kyle Larson	356	—	DNF	—	3
42	13	-29	Matt Kenseth	110	—	DNF	—	2
43	35	-8	Michael Annett	0	—	DNS	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 17 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Joey Logano	12.1	1	+11.1	Coinflip
3	Denny Hamlin	6.8	3	+3.8	High Confidence
4	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	4	+13.7	Moderate
6	Brad Keselowski	12.0	6	+6.0	Coinflip
8	Kyle Busch	15.6	8	+7.6	Coinflip
12	Justin Allgaier	17.7	12	+5.7	Moderate
13	Austin Dillon	17.0	13	+4.0	Coinflip
21	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	20.1	21	-0.9	Moderate
22	Ryan Blaney	6.8	22	-15.2	High Confidence
23	Casey Mears	18.0	23	-5.0	Moderate
26	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	26	-7.7	Moderate
28	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	28	-14.2	Coinflip
31	Michael McDowell	15.0	31	-16.0	Coinflip
32	Alex Bowman	14.0	32	-18.0	Coinflip
34	J.J. Yeley	28.1	34	-5.9	High Confidence
39	Timmy Hill	24.3	39	-14.7	High Confidence
41	Kyle Larson	8.6	41	-32.4	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Joey Logano: has 44 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 13.1 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P18. Track history: 45 starts, 14.7 avg finish.

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