NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MARTINSVILLE

Martinsville Speedway — November 1, 2015

Jeff Gordon

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jeff Gordon won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MARTINSVILLE at Martinsville Speedway on November 1, 2015, leading 35 of 500 laps. Jamie McMurray finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, November 1, 2015

Track

Martinsville Speedway

Season

2015

Winner

Jeff Gordon

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	5	+4	Jeff Gordon	500	—	Running	35	47
2	4	+2	Jamie McMurray	500	—	Running	—	42
3	10	+7	Denny Hamlin	500	—	Running	3	42
4	22	+18	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	500	—	Running	—	40
5	6	+1	Kyle Busch	500	—	Running	—	39
6	2	-4	Martin Truex, Jr.	500	—	Running	27	39
7	7	—	Ryan Newman	500	—	Running	—	37
8	12	+4	Kevin Harvick	500	—	Running	38	37
9	24	+15	Kasey Kahne	500	—	Running	—	35
10	13	+3	Tony Stewart	500	—	Running	—	34
11	3	-8	A.J. Allmendinger	500	—	Running	19	34
12	21	+9	Jimmie Johnson	500	—	Running	—	32
13	23	+10	Justin Allgaier	500	—	Running	—	31
14	14	—	Carl Edwards	500	—	Running	—	30
15	26	+11	Paul Menard	500	—	Running	—	29
16	8	-8	Aric Almirola	500	—	Running	—	28
17	19	+2	Casey Mears	500	—	Running	—	27
18	30	+12	Austin Dillon	500	—	Running	6	27
19	9	-10	Kyle Larson	500	—	Running	—	25
20	31	+11	Cole Whitt	500	—	Running	—	24
21	27	+6	Landon Cassill	500	—	Running	—	0
22	41	+19	Alex Bowman	499	—	Running	—	22
23	38	+15	Michael Annett	498	—	Running	—	21
24	33	+9	David Gilliland	498	—	Running	—	20
25	28	+3	David Ragan	498	—	Running	—	19
26	25	-1	Greg Biffle	497	—	Running	—	18
27	35	+8	Jeb Burton	496	—	Running	—	17
28	20	-8	Sam Hornish Jr.	493	—	Running	—	16
29	39	+10	J.J. Yeley	492	—	Running	—	0
30	36	+6	Matt DiBenedetto	492	—	Running	—	14
31	32	+1	Trevor Bayne	491	—	Running	—	13
32	11	-21	Brad Keselowski	490	—	Running	143	13
33	43	+10	Alex Kennedy	489	—	Running	—	11
34	15	-19	Kurt Busch	486	—	Running	22	11
35	34	-1	Brett Moffitt	479	—	Running	—	9
36	42	+6	Timmy Hill	459	—	Running	—	0
37	1	-36	Joey Logano	458	—	Running	207	9
38	18	-20	Matt Kenseth	443	—	Running	—	6
39	29	-10	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	423	—	DNF	—	5
40	16	-24	Danica Patrick	391	—	DNF	—	4
41	40	-1	Kyle Fowler	373	—	DNF	—	3
42	37	-5	Ryan Preece	365	—	DNF	—	2
43	17	-26	Clint Bowyer	185	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Denny Hamlin	6.8	3	+3.8	High Confidence
5	Kyle Busch	15.6	5	+10.6	Coinflip
6	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	6	+7.8	Coinflip
11	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	11	+7.3	Moderate
12	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	12	+5.7	Moderate
13	Justin Allgaier	17.7	13	+4.7	Moderate
17	Casey Mears	18.0	17	+1.0	Moderate
18	Austin Dillon	17.0	18	-1.0	Coinflip
19	Kyle Larson	8.6	19	-10.4	Moderate
22	Alex Bowman	14.0	22	-8.0	Coinflip
29	J.J. Yeley	28.1	29	-0.9	High Confidence
32	Brad Keselowski	12.0	32	-20.0	Coinflip
36	Timmy Hill	24.3	36	-11.7	High Confidence
37	Joey Logano	12.1	37	-24.9	Coinflip
39	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	20.1	39	-18.9	Moderate
42	Ryan Preece	10.8	42	-31.2	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jeff Gordon: has 51 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 7.0 avg finish (9 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 47 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 9.2 avg finish (8 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P16. Track history: 52 starts, 12.1 avg finish.

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