NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT TALLADEGA

Talladega Superspeedway — October 25, 2015

Joey Logano

Winner

196

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Joey Logano won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT TALLADEGA at Talladega Superspeedway on October 25, 2015, leading 20 of 196 laps. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. finished second; Jeff Gordon rounded out the podium. The race featured 18 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 25, 2015

Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Season

2015

Winner

Joey Logano

Leaders

18 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	10	+9	Joey Logano	196	—	Running	20	47
2	5	+3	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	196	—	Running	61	44
3	1	-2	Jeff Gordon	196	—	Running	8	42
4	11	+7	Brad Keselowski	196	—	Running	—	40
5	15	+10	Carl Edwards	196	—	Running	—	39
6	13	+7	Paul Menard	196	—	Running	2	39
7	43	+36	Martin Truex, Jr.	196	—	Running	—	37
8	29	+21	Clint Bowyer	196	—	Running	2	37
9	17	+8	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	196	—	Running	2	36
10	14	+4	Kurt Busch	196	—	Running	1	35
11	16	+5	Kyle Busch	196	—	Running	11	34
12	18	+6	Ryan Newman	196	—	Running	1	33
13	33	+20	Michael Waltrip	196	—	Running	3	32
14	26	+12	Austin Dillon	196	—	Running	—	30
15	7	-8	Kevin Harvick	196	—	Running	4	30
16	25	+9	Aric Almirola	196	—	Running	—	28
17	21	+4	Sam Hornish Jr.	196	—	Running	—	27
18	3	-15	Jimmie Johnson	196	—	Running	34	27
19	2	-17	Kasey Kahne	196	—	Running	18	26
20	19	-1	Greg Biffle	196	—	Running	18	25
21	6	-15	Trevor Bayne	196	—	Running	—	23
22	34	+12	Cole Whitt	196	—	Running	—	22
23	35	+12	Bobby Labonte	196	—	Running	—	21
24	23	-1	Kyle Larson	196	—	Running	—	20
25	12	-13	Tony Stewart	196	—	Running	—	19
26	4	-22	Matt Kenseth	196	—	Running	3	19
27	20	-7	Danica Patrick	196	—	Running	—	17
28	27	-1	Michael McDowell	195	—	Running	—	16
29	40	+11	Josh Wise	195	—	Running	—	15
30	22	-8	David Ragan	195	—	Running	1	15
31	28	-3	Casey Mears	195	—	Running	—	13
32	38	+6	David Gilliland	194	—	Running	2	13
33	37	+4	Alex Bowman	194	—	Running	—	11
34	41	+7	Landon Cassill	194	—	Running	—	0
35	42	+7	Travis Kvapil	193	—	Running	—	0
36	31	-5	A.J. Allmendinger	193	—	Running	—	8
37	8	-29	Denny Hamlin	192	—	Running	5	8
38	30	-8	J.J. Yeley	192	—	Running	—	0
39	24	-15	Jamie McMurray	182	—	Running	—	5
40	36	-4	Matt DiBenedetto	177	—	Running	—	4
41	32	-9	Timmy Hill	168	—	Running	—	0
42	39	-3	Justin Allgaier	130	—	DNF	—	2
43	9	-34	Ryan Blaney	84	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 17 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Joey Logano	20.5	1	+19.5	Moderate
4	Brad Keselowski	16.0	4	+12.0	Coinflip
7	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	7	+13.1	Coinflip
9	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	18.5	9	+9.5	Coinflip
11	Kyle Busch	15.1	11	+4.1	Coinflip
14	Austin Dillon	23.4	14	+9.4	High Confidence
18	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	18	+0.9	Coinflip
24	Kyle Larson	18.5	24	-5.5	Coinflip
28	Michael McDowell	20.0	28	-8.0	Coinflip
31	Casey Mears	18.5	31	-12.5	Coinflip
33	Alex Bowman	15.1	33	-17.9	Coinflip
36	A.J. Allmendinger	20.1	36	-15.9	Moderate
37	Denny Hamlin	16.0	37	-21.0	Coinflip
38	J.J. Yeley	25.2	38	-12.8	High Confidence
41	Timmy Hill	22.8	41	-18.2	Moderate
42	Justin Allgaier	21.1	42	-20.9	Moderate
43	Ryan Blaney	13.9	43	-29.1	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Joey Logano: has 42 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 18.0 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 16.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P43 on the day.

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