NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MICHIGAN

Michigan International Speedway — August 28, 2016

Kyle Larson

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kyle Larson won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MICHIGAN at Michigan International Speedway on August 28, 2016, leading 41 of 200 laps. Chase Elliott finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 13 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 28, 2016

Track

Michigan International Speedway

Season

2016

Winner

Kyle Larson

Leaders

13 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	12	+11	Kyle Larson	200	—	Running	41	45
2	5	+3	Chase Elliott	200	—	Running	31	40
3	18	+15	Brad Keselowski	200	—	Running	14	39
4	7	+3	Ryan Blaney	200	—	Running	—	37
5	4	-1	Kevin Harvick	200	—	Running	33	37
6	2	-4	Jimmie Johnson	200	—	Running	37	36
7	9	+2	Carl Edwards	200	—	Running	1	35
8	8	—	Jamie McMurray	200	—	Running	—	33
9	3	-6	Denny Hamlin	200	—	Running	—	32
10	1	-9	Joey Logano	200	—	Running	24	32
11	22	+11	Greg Biffle	200	—	Running	1	31
12	19	+7	Kurt Busch	200	—	Running	—	29
13	13	—	Matt Kenseth	200	—	Running	8	29
14	11	-3	Kasey Kahne	200	—	Running	—	27
15	25	+10	A.J. Allmendinger	200	—	Running	—	26
16	17	+1	Austin Dillon	200	—	Running	1	26
17	10	-7	Ryan Newman	200	—	Running	1	25
18	20	+2	Paul Menard	200	—	Running	—	23
19	16	-3	Kyle Busch	199	—	Running	—	22
20	14	-6	Martin Truex, Jr.	199	—	Running	7	22
21	15	-6	Tony Stewart	198	—	Running	—	20
22	28	+6	Casey Mears	198	—	Running	—	19
23	23	—	Danica Patrick	198	—	Running	—	18
24	24	—	Trevor Bayne	198	—	Running	—	17
25	26	+1	Aric Almirola	198	—	Running	—	16
26	31	+5	Regan Smith	198	—	Running	1	16
27	29	+2	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	198	—	Running	—	14
28	30	+2	Brian Scott	197	—	Running	—	13
29	32	+3	David Ragan	196	—	Running	—	12
30	6	-24	Alex Bowman	195	—	Running	—	0
31	35	+4	Michael McDowell	195	—	Running	—	10
32	34	+2	Matt DiBenedetto	195	—	Running	—	9
33	36	+3	Michael Annett	195	—	Running	—	8
34	37	+3	Cole Whitt	194	—	Running	—	7
35	21	-14	Chris Buescher	193	—	Running	—	6
36	39	+3	Reed Sorenson	193	—	Running	—	5
37	40	+3	Jeffrey Earnhardt	192	—	Running	—	4
38	38	—	Josh Wise	192	—	Running	—	3
39	33	-6	Landon Cassill	174	—	Running	—	2
40	27	-13	Clint Bowyer	160	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.1 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Kyle Larson	12.7	1	+11.7	Coinflip
2	Chase Elliott	7.8	2	+5.8	High Confidence
3	Brad Keselowski	11.2	3	+8.2	Moderate
4	Ryan Blaney	9.2	4	+5.2	High Confidence
6	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	6	+13.9	Moderate
9	Denny Hamlin	8.2	9	-0.8	High Confidence
10	Joey Logano	14.7	10	+4.7	Coinflip
15	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	15	+3.3	Moderate
16	Austin Dillon	17.1	16	+1.1	Coinflip
19	Kyle Busch	17.0	19	-2.0	Coinflip
20	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	20	-4.6	Coinflip
22	Casey Mears	16.9	22	-5.1	Coinflip
27	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	27	-7.1	Moderate
30	Alex Bowman	13.5	30	-16.5	Coinflip
31	Michael McDowell	17.0	31	-14.0	Coinflip
35	Chris Buescher	9.2	35	-25.8	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kyle Larson: has 21 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 12.1 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 17 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.1 avg finish, finishing P2 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P20. Track history: 42 starts, 17.1 avg finish.

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