NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT NEW HAMPSHIRE

New Hampshire Motor Speedway — July 17, 2016

Matt Kenseth

Winner

301

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Matt Kenseth won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT NEW HAMPSHIRE at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on July 17, 2016, leading 38 of 301 laps. Tony Stewart finished second; Joey Logano rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, July 17, 2016

Track

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Season

2016

Winner

Matt Kenseth

Leaders

6 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	18	+17	Matt Kenseth	301	—	Running	38	44
2	12	+10	Tony Stewart	301	—	Running	—	39
3	6	+3	Joey Logano	301	—	Running	—	38
4	8	+4	Kevin Harvick	301	—	Running	—	37
5	28	+23	Greg Biffle	301	—	Running	—	36
6	19	+13	Jamie McMurray	301	—	Running	—	35
7	25	+18	Ryan Newman	301	—	Running	—	34
8	2	-6	Kyle Busch	301	—	Running	133	35
9	5	-4	Denny Hamlin	301	—	Running	5	33
10	22	+12	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	301	—	Running	—	31
11	14	+3	Ryan Blaney	301	—	Running	—	30
12	1	-11	Jimmie Johnson	301	—	Running	1	30
13	15	+2	Austin Dillon	301	—	Running	—	28
14	29	+15	Danica Patrick	301	—	Running	—	27
15	9	-6	Brad Keselowski	301	—	Running	1	27
16	3	-13	Martin Truex, Jr.	301	—	Running	123	26
17	17	—	Kyle Larson	301	—	Running	—	24
18	24	+6	Paul Menard	301	—	Running	—	23
19	26	+7	Aric Almirola	301	—	Running	—	22
20	13	-7	Carl Edwards	301	—	Running	—	21
21	10	-11	A.J. Allmendinger	301	—	Running	—	20
22	4	-18	Kurt Busch	301	—	Running	—	19
23	31	+8	Trevor Bayne	301	—	Running	—	18
24	32	+8	Clint Bowyer	301	—	Running	—	17
25	11	-14	Kasey Kahne	301	—	Running	—	16
26	20	-6	Alex Bowman	301	—	Running	—	0
27	21	-6	Casey Mears	300	—	Running	—	14
28	30	+2	Landon Cassill	299	—	Running	—	13
29	35	+6	Chris Buescher	299	—	Running	—	12
30	23	-7	David Ragan	299	—	Running	—	11
31	16	-15	Matt DiBenedetto	299	—	Running	—	10
32	34	+2	Regan Smith	297	—	Running	—	9
33	37	+4	Michael Annett	295	—	Running	—	8
34	7	-27	Chase Elliott	294	—	Running	—	7
35	36	+1	Reed Sorenson	294	—	Running	—	6
36	38	+2	Eddie MacDonald	293	—	Running	—	5
37	40	+3	Ryan Ellis	292	—	Running	—	0
38	33	-5	Brian Scott	278	—	Running	—	3
39	27	-12	Michael McDowell	191	—	DNF	—	2
40	39	-1	Josh Wise	94	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Joey Logano	12.1	3	+9.1	Coinflip
8	Kyle Busch	15.6	8	+7.6	Coinflip
9	Denny Hamlin	6.8	9	-2.2	High Confidence
10	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	20.1	10	+10.1	Moderate
11	Ryan Blaney	6.8	11	-4.2	High Confidence
12	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	12	+5.7	Moderate
13	Austin Dillon	17.0	13	+4.0	Coinflip
15	Brad Keselowski	12.0	15	-3.0	Coinflip
16	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	16	-2.2	Coinflip
17	Kyle Larson	8.6	17	-8.4	Moderate
21	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	21	-2.7	Moderate
26	Alex Bowman	14.0	26	-12.0	Coinflip
27	Casey Mears	18.0	27	-9.0	Moderate
29	Chris Buescher	10.3	29	-18.7	Moderate
34	Chase Elliott	8.3	34	-25.7	High Confidence
39	Michael McDowell	15.0	39	-24.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Matt Kenseth: has 30 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 11.8 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 35 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 10.1 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P9 on the day.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P10 vs predicted P20. Track history: 21 starts, 20.8 avg finish.

Track Preview →