NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT NEW HAMPSHIRE
New Hampshire Motor Speedway — September 25, 2016
Kevin Harvick
Winner
300
Laps
40
Entries
8
Leaders
Kevin Harvick won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT NEW HAMPSHIRE at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on September 25, 2016, leading 8 of 300 laps. Matt Kenseth finished second; Kyle Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, September 25, 2016
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
8 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | +18 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2 | 8 | +6 | Matt Kenseth |
| 3 | 12 | +9 | Kyle Busch |
| 4 | 11 | +7 | Brad Keselowski |
| 5 | 13 | +8 | Kurt Busch |
| 6 | 1 | -5 | Carl Edwards |
| 7 | 2 | -5 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 8 | 4 | -4 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 9 | 9 | — | Kasey Kahne |
| 10 | 6 | -4 | Kyle Larson |
| 11 | 15 | +4 | Joey Logano |
| 12 | 16 | +4 | Ryan Blaney |
| 13 | 10 | -3 | Chase Elliott |
| 14 | 18 | +4 | Alex Bowman |
| 15 | 5 | -10 | Denny Hamlin |
| 16 | 29 | +13 | Austin Dillon |
| 17 | 26 | +9 | Aric Almirola |
| 18 | 24 | +6 | Danica Patrick |
| 19 | 7 | -12 | Jamie McMurray |
| 20 | 3 | -17 | Ryan Newman |
| 21 | 17 | -4 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 22 | 37 | +15 | Clint Bowyer |
| 23 | 22 | -1 | Tony Stewart |
| 24 | 21 | -3 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 25 | 14 | -11 | Paul Menard |
| 26 | 20 | -6 | Michael McDowell |
| 27 | 31 | +4 | Casey Mears |
| 28 | 33 | +5 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 29 | 34 | +5 | Landon Cassill |
| 30 | 28 | -2 | Chris Buescher |
| 31 | 25 | -6 | Brian Scott |
| 32 | 23 | -9 | David Ragan |
| 33 | 32 | -1 | Greg Biffle |
| 34 | 30 | -4 | Regan Smith |
| 35 | 36 | +1 | Cole Whitt |
| 36 | 38 | +2 | Reed Sorenson |
| 37 | 40 | +3 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 38 | 27 | -11 | Trevor Bayne |
| 39 | 39 | — | Josh Wise |
| 40 | 35 | -5 | Michael Annett |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 6.6 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 3 | +12.6 |
| 4 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 4 | +8.0 |
| 7 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.8 | 7 | +6.8 |
| 8 | Jimmie Johnson | 17.7 | 8 | +9.7 |
| 10 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 10 | -1.4 |
| 11 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 11 | +1.1 |
| 12 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 12 | -5.2 |
| 13 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 13 | -4.7 |
| 14 | Alex Bowman | 14.0 | 14 | 0.0 |
| 15 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 15 | -8.2 |
| 16 | Austin Dillon | 17.0 | 16 | +1.0 |
| 21 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 21 | -2.7 |
| 24 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.1 | 24 | -3.9 |
| 26 | Michael McDowell | 15.0 | 26 | -11.0 |
| 27 | Casey Mears | 18.0 | 27 | -9.0 |
| 30 | Chris Buescher | 10.3 | 30 | -19.7 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kevin Harvick: has 43 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 10.0 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 13 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 12.9 avg finish (1 win), finishing P12 on the day.
- Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P16. Track history: 44 starts, 11.9 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT NEW HAMPSHIRE?
Kevin Harvick won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT NEW HAMPSHIRE at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT NEW HAMPSHIRE held?
The 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT NEW HAMPSHIRE was held at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on September 25, 2016.