Alabama 500
Talladega Superspeedway — October 15, 2017
Brad Keselowski
Winner
188
Laps
25
Entries
16
Leaders
Brad Keselowski won the 2017 Alabama 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on October 15, 2017, leading 7 of 188 laps. Ryan Newman finished second; Trevor Bayne rounded out the podium. The race featured 16 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, October 15, 2017
Track
Season
2017
Winner
Leaders
16 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | +5 | Brad Keselowski |
| 2 | 22 | +20 | Ryan Newman |
| 3 | 24 | +21 | Trevor Bayne |
| 4 | 1 | -3 | Joey Logano |
| 5 | 28 | +23 | Aric Almirola |
| 6 | 19 | +13 | Denny Hamlin |
| 7 | 3 | -4 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 8 | 10 | +2 | Kasey Kahne |
| 9 | 36 | +27 | Gray Gaulding |
| 10 | 34 | +24 | David Ragan |
| 11 | 15 | +4 | Ty Dillon |
| 12 | 18 | +6 | Paul Menard |
| 13 | 4 | -9 | Kyle Larson |
| 14 | 12 | -2 | Matt Kenseth |
| 15 | 27 | +12 | Daniel Suarez |
| 16 | 7 | -9 | Chase Elliott |
| 17 | 33 | +16 | Chris Buescher |
| 18 | 2 | -16 | Ryan Blaney |
| 19 | — | — | Brendan Gaughan |
| 20 | 23 | +3 | Kevin Harvick |
| 22 | 20 | -2 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 25 | 11 | -14 | Kurt Busch |
| 26 | 21 | -5 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 27 | 9 | -18 | Kyle Busch |
| 31 | 30 | -1 | Matt DiBenedetto |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 2 | 2 | — | 18 |
| Chase Elliott | 4 | 1 | — | 17 |
| Brad Keselowski | 3 | 5 | — | 14 |
| Kyle Busch | 6 | 3 | — | 13 |
| Joey Logano | 1 | 22 | — | 10 |
| Ryan Blaney | 7 | 8 | — | 7 |
| Ryan Newman | 9 | 12 | — | 2 |
| Denny Hamlin | 17 | 9 | — | 2 |
| Dale Earnhardt, Jr. | 10 | 13 | — | 1 |
| Kevin Harvick | 13 | 10 | — | 1 |
| Brendan Gaughan | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 12 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.6 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Keselowski | 16.0 | 1 | +15.0 |
| 4 | Joey Logano | 20.5 | 4 | +16.5 |
| 6 | Denny Hamlin | 16.0 | 6 | +10.0 |
| 11 | Ty Dillon | 21.1 | 11 | +10.1 |
| 13 | Kyle Larson | 18.5 | 13 | +5.5 |
| 15 | Daniel Suarez | 15.1 | 15 | +0.1 |
| 16 | Chase Elliott | 10.4 | 16 | -5.6 |
| 17 | Chris Buescher | 13.6 | 17 | -3.4 |
| 18 | Ryan Blaney | 13.9 | 18 | -4.1 |
| 22 | A.J. Allmendinger | 20.1 | 22 | -1.9 |
| 26 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 18.5 | 26 | -7.5 |
| 27 | Kyle Busch | 15.1 | 27 | -11.9 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Brad Keselowski: has 37 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 16.2 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 22 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 14.3 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P16 on the day.
- Joey Logano: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P21. Track history: 42 starts, 18.0 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2017 Alabama 500?
Brad Keselowski won the 2017 Alabama 500 at Talladega Superspeedway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2017 Alabama 500 held?
The 2017 Alabama 500 was held at Talladega Superspeedway on October 15, 2017.