Alabama 500

Talladega Superspeedway, October 15, 2017

Brad Keselowski
Winner
188
Laps
40
Entries
16
Leaders

Brad Keselowski won the 2017 Alabama 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on October 15, 2017, leading 7 of 188 laps. Ryan Newman finished second; Trevor Bayne rounded out the podium. The race featured 16 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Sunday, October 15, 2017
Season
2017
Leaders
16 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 6 +5 Brad Keselowski
2 27 +25 Ryan Newman
3 10 +7 Trevor Bayne
4 3 -1 Joey Logano
5 26 +21 Aric Almirola
6 15 +9 Denny Hamlin
7 1 -6 Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
8 11 +3 Kasey Kahne
9 39 +30 Gray Gaulding
10 33 +23 David Ragan
11 25 +14 Ty Dillon
12 20 +8 Paul Menard
13 12 -1 Kyle Larson
14 19 +5 Matt Kenseth
15 14 -1 Daniel Suarez
16 2 -14 Chase Elliott
17 28 +11 Chris Buescher
18 9 -9 Ryan Blaney
19 35 +16 Brendan Gaughan
20 22 +2 Kevin Harvick
21 13 -8 Danica Patrick
22 24 +2 A.J. Allmendinger
23 21 -2 Martin Truex, Jr.
24 8 -16 Jimmie Johnson
25 4 -21 Kurt Busch
26 5 -21 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
27 16 -11 Kyle Busch
28 30 +2 Landon Cassill
29 18 -11 Austin Dillon
30 29 -1 Michael McDowell
31 32 +1 Matt DiBenedetto
32 37 +5 Joey Gase
33 40 +7 D.J. Kennington
34 38 +4 Cole Whitt
35 7 -28 Clint Bowyer
36 23 -13 Erik Jones
37 17 -20 Jamie McMurray
38 34 -4 Jeffrey Earnhardt
39 36 -3 Mark Thompson
40 31 -9 Justin Marks
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 17 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.0 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Brad Keselowski 18.5 1 +17.5
4 Joey Logano 18.5 4 +14.5
6 Denny Hamlin 15.1 6 +9.1
11 Ty Dillon 22.9 11 +11.9
13 Kyle Larson 20.1 13 +7.1
15 Daniel Suarez 15.1 15 +0.1
16 Chase Elliott 13.6 16 -2.4
17 Chris Buescher 13.6 17 -3.4
18 Ryan Blaney 10.4 18 -7.6
22 A.J. Allmendinger 22.9 22 +0.9
23 Martin Truex, Jr. 20.5 23 -2.5
24 Jimmie Johnson 20.0 24 -4.0
26 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 18.5 26 -7.5
29 Austin Dillon 21.1 29 -7.9
30 Michael McDowell 19.2 30 -10.8
32 Joey Gase 23.7 32 -8.3
36 Erik Jones 16.0 36 -20.0

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Brad Keselowski: has 38 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 16.0 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 28 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 17.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P18 on the day.

Explore More

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2017 Alabama 500?
Brad Keselowski won the 2017 Alabama 500 at Talladega Superspeedway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2017 Alabama 500 held?
The 2017 Alabama 500 was held at Talladega Superspeedway on October 15, 2017.