Bojangles' Southern 500

Darlington Raceway — September 3, 2017

Denny Hamlin

Winner

367

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2017 Bojangles' Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway on September 3, 2017, leading 124 of 367 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Kurt Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, September 3, 2017

Track

Darlington Raceway

Season

2017

Winner

Denny Hamlin

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Team	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	15	+14	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	367	Winner	Running	124	32
2	16	+14	Kyle Busch	Joe Gibbs Racing	367	—	Running	6	43
3	4	+1	Kurt Busch	Stewart-Haas Racing	367	—	Running	7	38
4	18	+14	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	367	—	Running	—	36
5	23	+18	Erik Jones	Furniture Row Racing	367	—	Running	—	37
6	19	+13	Matt Kenseth	Joe Gibbs Racing	367	—	Running	—	32
7	27	+20	Ryan Newman	Richard Childress Racing	367	—	Running	—	30
8	21	+13	Martin Truex, Jr.	Furniture Row Racing	367	—	Running	76	49
9	22	+13	Kevin Harvick	Stewart-Haas Racing	366	+1 Lap	Running	22	43
10	17	+7	Jamie McMurray	Chip Ganassi Racing	366	+1 Lap	Running	—	34
11	2	-9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	366	+1 Lap	Running	—	26
12	8	-4	Jimmie Johnson	Hendrick Motorsports	366	+1 Lap	Running	—	25
13	25	+12	Ty Dillon	Germain Racing	366	+1 Lap	Running	—	24
14	12	-2	Kyle Larson	Chip Ganassi Racing	366	+1 Lap	Running	124	39
15	6	-9	Brad Keselowski	Team Penske	366	+1 Lap	Running	3	33
16	20	+4	Paul Menard	Richard Childress Racing	366	+1 Lap	Running	—	21
17	28	+11	Chris Buescher	JTG Daugherty Racing	366	+1 Lap	Running	—	20
18	3	-15	Joey Logano	Team Penske	366	+1 Lap	Running	—	22
19	29	+10	Michael McDowell	Leavine Family Racing	365	+2 Laps	Running	—	18
20	26	+6	Aric Almirola	Richard Petty Motorsports	365	+2 Laps	Running	—	17
21	30	+9	Landon Cassill	Front Row Motorsports	365	+2 Laps	running	5	16
22	—	—	Michael McDowell	Leavine Family Racing	309	—	Running	—	15
23	—	—	A.J. Allmendinger	JTG-Daugherty Racing	309	—	Running	—	14
24	—	—	Landon Cassill	Bob Jenkins	309	—	Running	—	13
25	—	—	Danica Patrick	Stewart Haas Racing	309	—	Running	—	12
26	—	—	D.J. Kennington	Jay Robinson	307	—	Running	—	11
27	—	—	Matt DiBenedetto	Archie St. Hilaire	306	—	Running	—	10
28	—	—	David Starr	Carl Long	305	—	Running	—	0
29	—	—	Jeffrey Earnhardt	Joe Falk	305	—	Running	—	8
30	—	—	Joey Gase	Tommy Baldwin, Jr.	304	—	Running	—	0
31	—	—	Corey LaJoie	BK Racing	303	—	Running	—	0
32	—	—	Derrike Cope	StarCom Racing	302	—	Running	—	5
33	—	—	David Ragan	Bob Jenkins	301	—	Running	—	4
34	—	—	Kyle Weatherman	Rick Ware	294	—	Running	—	3
35	—	—	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs	275	—	Accident	—	21
36	—	—	Cole Whitt	Bryan Smith	258	—	Accident	—	1
37	—	—	Chris Buescher	JTG-Daugherty Racing	247	—	Accident	—	1
38	—	—	Trevor Bayne	Jack Roush	226	—	Accident	—	1
39	—	—	Jimmie Johnson	Rick Hendrick	148	—	Accident	—	2
40	—	—	Kyle Larson	Chip Ganassi	104	—	Engine	—	11

Stage Results

Driver	Stage 1	Stage 2	Stage 3	Stage Pts
Brad Keselowski	1	2	—	19
Jimmie Johnson	6	7	—	9
Joey Logano	2	—	—	9
Kurt Busch	8	6	—	8
Chase Elliott	—	4	—	7
Austin Dillon	—	5	—	6
Michael McDowell	7	—	—	4
Kevin Harvick	—	8	—	3
Kyle Busch	—	9	—	2
Denny Hamlin	—	10	—	1
Erik Jones	—	—	—	—
Matt Kenseth	—	—	—	—
Ryan Newman	—	—	—	—
Martin Truex, Jr.	—	—	—	—
Jamie McMurray	—	—	—	—
Ty Dillon	—	—	—	—
Kyle Larson	—	—	—	—
Paul Menard	—	—	—	—
Chris Buescher	—	—	—	—
Aric Almirola	—	—	—	—
Landon Cassill	—	—	—	—
Michael McDowell	—	—	—	—
A.J. Allmendinger	—	—	—	—
Landon Cassill	—	—	—	—
Danica Patrick	—	—	—	—
D.J. Kennington	—	—	—	—
Matt DiBenedetto	—	—	—	—
David Starr	—	—	—	—
Jeffrey Earnhardt	—	—	—	—
Joey Gase	—	—	—	—
Corey LaJoie	—	—	—	—
Derrike Cope	—	—	—	—
David Ragan	—	—	—	—
Kyle Weatherman	—	—	—	—
Denny Hamlin	—	—	—	—
Cole Whitt	—	—	—	—
Chris Buescher	—	—	—	—
Trevor Bayne	—	—	—	—
Jimmie Johnson	—	—	—	—
Kyle Larson	—	—	—	—

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 17 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.1 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Denny Hamlin	8.2	1	+7.2	High Confidence
2	Kyle Busch	17.0	2	+15.0	Coinflip
4	Austin Dillon	17.1	4	+13.1	Coinflip
5	Erik Jones	16.7	5	+11.7	Coinflip
8	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	8	+7.4	Coinflip
11	Chase Elliott	7.8	11	-3.2	High Confidence
12	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	12	+7.9	Moderate
13	Ty Dillon	23.4	13	+10.4	High Confidence
14	Kyle Larson	12.7	14	-1.3	Coinflip
15	Brad Keselowski	11.2	15	-3.8	Moderate
17	Chris Buescher	9.2	17	-7.8	High Confidence
18	Joey Logano	14.7	18	-3.3	Coinflip
19	Michael McDowell	17.0	19	-2.0	Coinflip
23	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	23	-4.7	Moderate
28	David Starr	20.9	28	-7.1	Moderate
30	Joey Gase	23.4	30	-6.6	High Confidence
31	Corey LaJoie	22.2	31	-8.8	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin: has 41 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 7.6 avg finish (10 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 23 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 12.8 avg finish (1 win), finishing P11 on the day.
Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P17. Track history: 42 starts, 14.1 avg finish.

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