Federated Auto Parts 400

Richmond Raceway — September 9, 2017

Kyle Larson

Winner

404

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kyle Larson won the 2017 Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway on September 9, 2017, leading 53 of 404 laps. Joey Logano finished second; Ryan Newman rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, September 9, 2017

Track

Richmond Raceway

Season

2017

Winner

Kyle Larson

Leaders

7 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Team	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	13	+12	Kyle Larson	Chip Ganassi Racing	404	Winner	Running	53	54
2	17	+15	Joey Logano	Team Penske	404	—	Running	—	47
3	18	+15	Ryan Newman	Richard Childress Racing	404	—	Running	4	36
4	15	+11	Kurt Busch	Stewart-Haas Racing	404	—	Running	—	37
5	4	-1	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	404	—	Running	—	32
6	6	—	Erik Jones	Furniture Row Racing	404	—	Running	—	43
7	5	-2	Daniel Suarez	Joe Gibbs Racing	404	—	Running	—	30
8	12	+4	Jimmie Johnson	Hendrick Motorsports	404	—	Running	—	29
9	7	-2	Kyle Busch	Joe Gibbs Racing	404	—	Running	38	39
10	14	+4	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	404	—	Running	—	29
11	10	-1	Brad Keselowski	Team Penske	404	—	Running	9	32
12	21	+9	Kasey Kahne	Hendrick Motorsports	404	—	Running	—	25
13	19	+6	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	Hendrick Motorsports	404	—	Running	13	28
14	8	-6	Jamie McMurray	Chip Ganassi Racing	404	—	Running	—	23
15	2	-13	Kevin Harvick	Stewart-Haas Racing	404	—	Running	—	25
16	16	—	Michael McDowell	Leavine Family Racing	404	—	Running	—	21
17	25	+8	Aric Almirola	Richard Petty Motorsports	404	—	Running	—	20
18	40	+22	Ryan Blaney	Wood Brothers Racing	404	—	Running	—	19
19	24	+5	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Roush Fenway Racing	404	—	Running	—	18
20	1	-19	Martin Truex, Jr.	Furniture Row Racing	403	DNF - Crash	Accident	198	33
21	—	—	Erik Jones	Barney Visser	265	—	Running	—	16
22	—	—	Kurt Busch	Stewart Haas Racing	265	—	Running	—	24
23	—	—	Landon Cassill	Bob Jenkins	265	—	Running	—	14
24	—	—	Michael McDowell	Leavine Family Racing	265	—	Running	—	13
25	—	—	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	Rick Hendrick	264	—	Running	—	12
26	—	—	Ty Dillon	Germain Racing	264	—	Running	—	11
27	—	—	Jimmie Johnson	Rick Hendrick	264	—	Running	—	10
28	—	—	Cole Whitt	Bryan Smith	264	—	Running	—	9
29	—	—	Ryan Blaney	Wood Brothers	264	—	Running	—	8
30	—	—	Matt DiBenedetto	Archie St. Hilaire	263	—	Running	—	7
31	—	—	Corey LaJoie	BK Racing	261	—	Running	—	0
32	—	—	Jeffrey Earnhardt	Joe Falk	259	—	Running	—	5
33	—	—	Kasey Kahne	Rick Hendrick	234	—	Accident	—	4
34	—	—	Daniel Suarez	Joe Gibbs	225	—	Brakes	—	3
35	—	—	Reed Sorenson	Jay Robinson	212	—	Engine	—	2
36	—	—	David Starr	Carl Long	175	—	Brakes	—	0
37	—	—	Danica Patrick	Stewart Haas Racing	139	—	Accident	—	1
38	3	-35	Matt Kenseth	Joe Gibbs Racing	257	DNF - Crash	accident	89	17
39	—	—	Joey Gase	BK Racing	4	—	Accident	—	0

Stage Results

Driver	Stage 1	Stage 2	Stage 3	Stage Pts
Denny Hamlin	3	1	—	18
Kevin Harvick	2	2	—	18
Kyle Busch	1	5	—	16
Jamie McMurray	5	7	—	10
Ryan Blaney	4	8	—	10
Matt Kenseth	9	4	—	9
Brad Keselowski	—	3	—	8
Erik Jones	10	6	—	6
Jimmie Johnson	6	10	—	6
Chase Elliott	7	9	—	6
Martin Truex, Jr.	8	—	—	3
Kyle Larson	—	—	—	—
Joey Logano	—	—	—	—
Ryan Newman	—	—	—	—
Kurt Busch	—	—	—	—
Daniel Suarez	—	—	—	—
Kasey Kahne	—	—	—	—
Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	—	—	—	—
Michael McDowell	—	—	—	—
Aric Almirola	—	—	—	—
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	—	—	—	—
Erik Jones	—	—	—	—
Kurt Busch	—	—	—	—
Landon Cassill	—	—	—	—
Michael McDowell	—	—	—	—
Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	—	—	—	—
Ty Dillon	—	—	—	—
Jimmie Johnson	—	—	—	—
Cole Whitt	—	—	—	—
Ryan Blaney	—	—	—	—
Matt DiBenedetto	—	—	—	—
Corey LaJoie	—	—	—	—
Jeffrey Earnhardt	—	—	—	—
Kasey Kahne	—	—	—	—
Daniel Suarez	—	—	—	—
Reed Sorenson	—	—	—	—
David Starr	—	—	—	—
Danica Patrick	—	—	—	—
Joey Gase	—	—	—	—

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 17 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.0 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Kyle Larson	8.6	1	+7.6	Moderate
2	Joey Logano	12.1	2	+10.1	Coinflip
5	Denny Hamlin	6.8	5	+1.8	High Confidence
6	Erik Jones	17.7	6	+11.7	Coinflip
7	Daniel Suarez	15.6	7	+8.6	Coinflip
8	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	8	+9.7	Moderate
9	Kyle Busch	15.6	9	+6.6	Coinflip
10	Chase Elliott	8.3	10	-1.7	High Confidence
11	Brad Keselowski	12.0	11	+1.0	Coinflip
16	Michael McDowell	15.0	16	-1.0	Coinflip
18	Ryan Blaney	6.8	18	-11.2	High Confidence
19	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	20.1	19	+1.1	Moderate
20	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	20	-6.2	Coinflip
26	Ty Dillon	24.3	26	-1.7	High Confidence
31	Corey LaJoie	24.9	31	-6.1	High Confidence
36	David Starr	20.2	36	-15.8	Moderate
39	Joey Gase	22.0	39	-17.0	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kyle Larson: has 18 career starts at Richmond Raceway with a 13.5 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Richmond Raceway with a 9.8 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P5 on the day.
Erik Jones: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P18. Track history: 13 starts, 20.5 avg finish.

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