STP 500
Martinsville Speedway, April 2, 2017
Brad Keselowski
Winner
500
Laps
38
Entries
7
Leaders
Brad Keselowski won the 2017 STP 500 at Martinsville Speedway on April 2, 2017, leading 116 of 500 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Chase Elliott rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, April 2, 2017
Track
Season
2017
Winner
Leaders
7 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | +3 | Brad Keselowski |
| 2 | 10 | +8 | Kyle Busch |
| 3 | 2 | -1 | Chase Elliott |
| 4 | 5 | +1 | Joey Logano |
| 5 | 20 | +15 | Austin Dillon |
| 6 | 30 | +24 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 7 | 8 | +1 | Clint Bowyer |
| 8 | 11 | +3 | Ryan Newman |
| 9 | 25 | +16 | Matt Kenseth |
| 10 | 24 | +14 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 11 | 33 | +22 | Chris Buescher |
| 12 | 15 | +3 | Erik Jones |
| 13 | 16 | +3 | Trevor Bayne |
| 14 | 13 | -1 | Kasey Kahne |
| 15 | 17 | +2 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 16 | 3 | -13 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 17 | 1 | -16 | Kyle Larson |
| 18 | 18 | — | Aric Almirola |
| 19 | 22 | +3 | Paul Menard |
| 20 | 9 | -11 | Kevin Harvick |
| 21 | 31 | +10 | Cole Whitt |
| 22 | 23 | +1 | Ty Dillon |
| 23 | 29 | +6 | Danica Patrick |
| 24 | 34 | +10 | David Ragan |
| 25 | 7 | -18 | Ryan Blaney |
| 26 | 26 | — | Michael McDowell |
| 27 | 27 | — | Landon Cassill |
| 28 | 35 | +7 | Corey LaJoie |
| 29 | 37 | +8 | Gray Gaulding |
| 30 | 12 | -18 | Denny Hamlin |
| 31 | 32 | +1 | Reed Sorenson |
| 32 | 19 | -13 | Daniel Suarez |
| 33 | 38 | +5 | Timmy Hill |
| 34 | 21 | -13 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 35 | 28 | -7 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 36 | 36 | — | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 37 | 14 | -23 | Kurt Busch |
| 38 | 6 | -32 | Jamie McMurray |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 18 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 1 | +12.8 |
| 3 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 3 | +6.9 |
| 4 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 4 | +6.3 |
| 5 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 5 | +12.7 |
| 6 | A.J. Allmendinger | 20.1 | 6 | +14.1 |
| 10 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.4 | 10 | +10.4 |
| 11 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 11 | +1.0 |
| 12 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 12 | +5.7 |
| 15 | Jimmie Johnson | 18.0 | 15 | +3.0 |
| 16 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 16 | -2.0 |
| 17 | Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 17 | -6.7 |
| 22 | Ty Dillon | 23.1 | 22 | +1.1 |
| 25 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 25 | -18.2 |
| 26 | Michael McDowell | 15.6 | 26 | -10.4 |
| 28 | Corey LaJoie | 24.9 | 28 | -3.1 |
| 30 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 30 | -23.2 |
| 32 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 32 | -18.0 |
| 33 | Timmy Hill | 23.1 | 33 | -9.9 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Brad Keselowski: has 37 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 15.4 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 26 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 8.0 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P25 on the day.
- A.J. Allmendinger: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P20. Track history: 35 starts, 20.7 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2017 STP 500?
Brad Keselowski won the 2017 STP 500 at Martinsville Speedway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2017 STP 500 held?
The 2017 STP 500 was held at Martinsville Speedway on April 2, 2017.