TicketGuardian 500

Phoenix Raceway — March 11, 2018

Kevin Harvick

Winner

312

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kevin Harvick won the 2018 TicketGuardian 500 at Phoenix Raceway on March 11, 2018, leading 38 of 312 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Chase Elliott rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, March 11, 2018

Track

Phoenix Raceway

Season

2018

Winner

Kevin Harvick

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Team	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Kevin Harvick	Stewart-Haas Racing	312	Winner	Running	38	53
2	3	+1	Kyle Busch	Joe Gibbs Racing	312	—	Running	128	52
3	17	+14	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	312	—	Running	—	39
4	6	+2	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	312	—	Running	33	40
5	7	+2	Martin Truex, Jr.	Furniture Row Racing	312	—	Running	3	41
6	33	+27	Clint Bowyer	Stewart-Haas Racing	312	—	Running	—	32
7	4	-3	Aric Almirola	Stewart-Haas Racing	312	—	Running	—	30
8	14	+6	Daniel Suarez	Joe Gibbs Racing	312	—	Running	—	29
9	12	+3	Erik Jones	Joe Gibbs Racing	312	—	Running	—	29
10	8	-2	Kurt Busch	Stewart-Haas Racing	312	—	Running	6	40
11	15	+4	Ryan Newman	Richard Childress Racing	312	—	Running	23	26
12	13	+1	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	312	—	Running	15	25
13	19	+6	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	312	—	Running	—	24
14	23	+9	Jimmie Johnson	Hendrick Motorsports	312	—	Running	—	23
15	5	-10	Brad Keselowski	Team Penske	312	—	Running	12	35
16	2	-14	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	311	+1 Lap	Running	—	21
17	25	+8	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	311	+1 Lap	Running	—	20
18	22	+4	Kyle Larson	Chip Ganassi Racing	311	+1 Lap	Running	54	27
19	9	-10	Joey Logano	Team Penske	311	+1 Lap	Running	—	20
20	—	—	Trevor Bayne	Roush Fenway Racing	311	+1 Lap	Running	—	17
21	—	—	Cole Whitt	Bryan Smith	188	—	Running	—	16
22	—	—	Brendan Gaughan	Beard Motorsports	188	—	Running	—	0
23	—	—	Timothy Peters	Ricky Benton	187	—	Running	—	0
24	—	—	Gray Gaulding	BK Racing	187	—	Running	—	13
25	—	—	Ross Chastain	Jay Robinson	186	—	Running	—	0
26	—	—	Martin Truex, Jr.	Barney Visser	184	—	Accident	—	19
27	—	—	Joey Gase	StarCom Racing	178	—	Engine	—	0
28	—	—	Jamie McMurray	Chip Ganassi	174	—	Running	—	9
29	—	—	William Byron	Rick Hendrick	165	—	Accident	—	10
30	—	—	Paul Menard	Wood Brothers	165	—	Accident	—	23
31	—	—	Clint Bowyer	Stewart Haas Racing	165	—	Accident	—	6
32	—	—	Michael McDowell	Bob Jenkins	165	—	Accident	—	5
33	—	—	Brad Keselowski	Roger Penske	165	—	Accident	—	14
34	—	—	A.J. Allmendinger	JTG-Daugherty Racing	165	—	Accident	—	3
35	—	—	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress	165	—	Accident	—	2
36	—	—	Timmy Hill	Rick Ware	151	—	Engine	—	0
37	—	—	Reed Sorenson	Jay Robinson	79	—	Suspension	—	0
38	—	—	Trevor Bayne	Jack Roush	71	—	Accident	—	1
39	—	—	Erik Jones	Joe Gibbs	71	—	Accident	—	1
40	—	—	Kyle Larson	Chip Ganassi	71	—	Accident	—	1

Stage Results

Driver	Stage 1	Stage 2	Stage 3	Stage Pts
Kevin Harvick	2	2	—	18
Ryan Blaney	1	3	—	18
Kyle Larson	5	1	—	16
Joey Logano	4	5	—	13
Kyle Busch	8	4	—	10
Aric Almirola	6	6	—	10
Brad Keselowski	3	—	—	8
Kurt Busch	9	7	—	6
Denny Hamlin	7	—	—	4
Clint Bowyer	10	8	—	4
Erik Jones	—	9	—	2
Martin Truex, Jr.	—	10	—	1
Chase Elliott	—	—	—	—
Daniel Suarez	—	—	—	—
Ryan Newman	—	—	—	—
William Byron	—	—	—	—
Alex Bowman	—	—	—	—
Jimmie Johnson	—	—	—	—
Austin Dillon	—	—	—	—
Trevor Bayne	—	—	—	—
Cole Whitt	—	—	—	—
Brendan Gaughan	—	—	—	—
Timothy Peters	—	—	—	—
Gray Gaulding	—	—	—	—
Ross Chastain	—	—	—	—
Martin Truex, Jr.	—	—	—	—
Joey Gase	—	—	—	—
Jamie McMurray	—	—	—	—
William Byron	—	—	—	—
Paul Menard	—	—	—	—
Clint Bowyer	—	—	—	—
Michael McDowell	—	—	—	—
Brad Keselowski	—	—	—	—
A.J. Allmendinger	—	—	—	—
Austin Dillon	—	—	—	—
Timmy Hill	—	—	—	—
Reed Sorenson	—	—	—	—
Trevor Bayne	—	—	—	—
Erik Jones	—	—	—	—
Kyle Larson	—	—	—	—

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 19 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.5 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Kyle Busch	15.6	2	+13.6	Coinflip
3	Chase Elliott	8.3	3	+5.3	High Confidence
4	Denny Hamlin	6.8	4	+2.8	High Confidence
5	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	5	+8.8	Coinflip
8	Daniel Suarez	15.6	8	+7.6	Coinflip
9	Erik Jones	17.7	9	+8.7	Coinflip
12	William Byron	10.3	12	-1.7	Moderate
13	Alex Bowman	14.0	13	+1.0	Coinflip
14	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	14	+3.7	Moderate
15	Brad Keselowski	12.0	15	-3.0	Coinflip
16	Ryan Blaney	6.8	16	-9.2	High Confidence
17	Austin Dillon	17.0	17	0.0	Coinflip
18	Kyle Larson	8.6	18	-9.4	Moderate
19	Joey Logano	12.1	19	-6.9	Coinflip
25	Ross Chastain	13.8	25	-11.2	Coinflip
27	Joey Gase	22.0	27	-5.0	High Confidence
32	Michael McDowell	15.0	32	-17.0	Coinflip
34	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	34	-15.7	Moderate
36	Timmy Hill	24.3	36	-11.7	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kevin Harvick: has 40 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 8.3 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 29 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 11.5 avg finish (1 win), finishing P4 on the day.
Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P16. Track history: 34 starts, 7.1 avg finish.

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