1000Bulbs.com 500
Talladega Superspeedway, October 14, 2018
Aric Almirola
Winner
193
Laps
40
Entries
11
Leaders
Aric Almirola won the 2018 1000Bulbs.com 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on October 14, 2018, leading 1 of 193 laps. Clint Bowyer finished second; Ricky Stenhouse Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, October 14, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
11 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | +3 | Aric Almirola |
| 2 | 2 | — | Clint Bowyer |
| 3 | 12 | +9 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 4 | 10 | +6 | Denny Hamlin |
| 5 | 20 | +15 | Joey Logano |
| 6 | 23 | +17 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 7 | 6 | -1 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 8 | 15 | +7 | Erik Jones |
| 9 | 30 | +21 | Paul Menard |
| 10 | 25 | +15 | Regan Smith |
| 11 | 34 | +23 | Kyle Larson |
| 12 | 28 | +16 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 13 | 24 | +11 | Trevor Bayne |
| 14 | 1 | -13 | Kurt Busch |
| 15 | 29 | +14 | Ty Dillon |
| 16 | 13 | -3 | Daniel Suarez |
| 17 | 21 | +4 | Austin Dillon |
| 18 | 37 | +19 | Joey Gase |
| 19 | 17 | -2 | Bubba Wallace |
| 20 | 8 | -12 | William Byron |
| 21 | 26 | +5 | Chris Buescher |
| 22 | 38 | +16 | Landon Cassill |
| 23 | 11 | -12 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 24 | 36 | +12 | Ross Chastain |
| 25 | 22 | -3 | Ryan Newman |
| 26 | 9 | -17 | Kyle Busch |
| 27 | 18 | -9 | Brad Keselowski |
| 28 | 3 | -25 | Kevin Harvick |
| 29 | 19 | -10 | Ryan Blaney |
| 30 | 27 | -3 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 31 | 5 | -26 | Chase Elliott |
| 32 | 40 | +8 | Corey LaJoie |
| 33 | 7 | -26 | Alex Bowman |
| 34 | 33 | -1 | D.J. Kennington |
| 35 | 31 | -4 | Jamie McMurray |
| 36 | 32 | -4 | J.J. Yeley |
| 37 | 35 | -2 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 38 | 39 | +1 | Cody Ware |
| 39 | 16 | -23 | David Ragan |
| 40 | 14 | -26 | Michael McDowell |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 24 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 18.5 | 3 | +15.5 |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin | 15.1 | 4 | +11.1 |
| 5 | Joey Logano | 18.5 | 5 | +13.5 |
| 6 | A.J. Allmendinger | 22.9 | 6 | +16.9 |
| 7 | Jimmie Johnson | 20.0 | 7 | +13.0 |
| 8 | Erik Jones | 16.0 | 8 | +8.0 |
| 11 | Kyle Larson | 20.1 | 11 | +9.1 |
| 15 | Ty Dillon | 22.9 | 15 | +7.9 |
| 16 | Daniel Suarez | 15.1 | 16 | -0.9 |
| 17 | Austin Dillon | 21.1 | 17 | +4.1 |
| 18 | Joey Gase | 23.7 | 18 | +5.7 |
| 19 | Bubba Wallace | 16.9 | 19 | -2.1 |
| 20 | William Byron | 13.9 | 20 | -6.1 |
| 21 | Chris Buescher | 13.6 | 21 | -7.4 |
| 23 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 20.5 | 23 | -2.5 |
| 24 | Ross Chastain | 16.0 | 24 | -8.0 |
| 27 | Brad Keselowski | 18.5 | 27 | -8.5 |
| 29 | Ryan Blaney | 10.4 | 29 | -18.6 |
| 31 | Chase Elliott | 13.6 | 31 | -17.4 |
| 32 | Corey LaJoie | 23.3 | 32 | -8.7 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Aric Almirola: has 39 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 16.0 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 28 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 17.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P29 on the day.
- A.J. Allmendinger: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P23. Track history: 33 starts, 20.3 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 1000Bulbs.com 500?
Aric Almirola won the 2018 1000Bulbs.com 500 at Talladega Superspeedway driving for McAnally-Hilgemann Racing.
Where was the 2018 1000Bulbs.com 500 held?
The 2018 1000Bulbs.com 500 was held at Talladega Superspeedway on October 14, 2018.