1000Bulbs.com 500
Talladega Superspeedway — October 14, 2018
Aric Almirola
Winner
193
Laps
26
Entries
11
Leaders
Aric Almirola won the 2018 1000Bulbs.com 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on October 14, 2018, leading 1 of 193 laps. Clint Bowyer finished second; Ricky Stenhouse Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, October 14, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
11 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | +21 | Aric Almirola |
| 2 | 19 | +17 | Clint Bowyer |
| 3 | 29 | +26 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 4 | 6 | +2 | Denny Hamlin |
| 5 | 5 | — | Joey Logano |
| 6 | 20 | +14 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 7 | 17 | +10 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 8 | 9 | +1 | Erik Jones |
| 9 | 14 | +5 | Paul Menard |
| 10 | — | — | Regan Smith |
| 11 | 2 | -9 | Kyle Larson |
| 12 | — | — | Brendan Gaughan |
| 13 | 21 | +8 | Trevor Bayne |
| 14 | 23 | +9 | Kurt Busch |
| 15 | 28 | +13 | Ty Dillon |
| 16 | 15 | -1 | Daniel Suarez |
| 17 | 18 | +1 | Austin Dillon |
| 18 | — | — | Joey Gase |
| 19 | 27 | +8 | Bubba Wallace |
| 20 | 11 | -9 | William Byron |
| 24 | 36 | +12 | Ross Chastain |
| 26 | 7 | -19 | Kyle Busch |
| 27 | 25 | -2 | Brad Keselowski |
| 28 | 10 | -18 | Kevin Harvick |
| 29 | 12 | -17 | Ryan Blaney |
| 30 | 30 | — | Matt DiBenedetto |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | 1 | 4 | — | 17 |
| Kurt Busch | 8 | 1 | — | 13 |
| Brad Keselowski | 7 | 2 | — | 13 |
| Kevin Harvick | 2 | 7 | — | 13 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | 3 | — | 8 |
| Kyle Larson | 3 | — | — | 8 |
| Denny Hamlin | 4 | — | — | 7 |
| Ty Dillon | — | 5 | — | 6 |
| Clint Bowyer | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| Joey Logano | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| Erik Jones | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| A.J. Allmendinger | — | — | — | — |
| Jimmie Johnson | — | — | — | — |
| Paul Menard | — | — | — | — |
| Regan Smith | — | — | — | — |
| Brendan Gaughan | — | — | — | — |
| Trevor Bayne | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| William Byron | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Blaney | — | — | — | — |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 17 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 18.5 | 3 | +15.5 |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin | 16.0 | 4 | +12.0 |
| 5 | Joey Logano | 20.5 | 5 | +15.5 |
| 6 | A.J. Allmendinger | 20.1 | 6 | +14.1 |
| 7 | Jimmie Johnson | 18.9 | 7 | +11.9 |
| 8 | Erik Jones | 18.5 | 8 | +10.5 |
| 11 | Kyle Larson | 18.5 | 11 | +7.5 |
| 15 | Ty Dillon | 21.1 | 15 | +6.1 |
| 16 | Daniel Suarez | 15.1 | 16 | -0.9 |
| 17 | Austin Dillon | 23.4 | 17 | +6.4 |
| 18 | Joey Gase | 23.7 | 18 | +5.7 |
| 19 | Bubba Wallace | 16.0 | 19 | -3.0 |
| 20 | William Byron | 13.9 | 20 | -6.1 |
| 24 | Ross Chastain | 17.4 | 24 | -6.6 |
| 26 | Kyle Busch | 15.1 | 26 | -10.9 |
| 27 | Brad Keselowski | 16.0 | 27 | -11.0 |
| 29 | Ryan Blaney | 13.9 | 29 | -15.1 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Aric Almirola: has 39 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 15.9 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- William Byron: was the model’s top pick based on 18 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 15.8 avg finish, finishing P20 on the day.
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P19. Track history: 24 starts, 12.3 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 1000Bulbs.com 500?
Aric Almirola won the 2018 1000Bulbs.com 500 at Talladega Superspeedway driving for Stewart-Haas Racing.
Where was the 2018 1000Bulbs.com 500 held?
The 2018 1000Bulbs.com 500 was held at Talladega Superspeedway on October 14, 2018.