TicketGuardian 500
Phoenix Raceway, March 11, 2018
Kevin Harvick
Winner
312
Laps
37
Entries
9
Leaders
Kevin Harvick won the 2018 TicketGuardian 500 at Phoenix Raceway on March 11, 2018, leading 38 of 312 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Chase Elliott rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, March 11, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
9 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | +9 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2 | 7 | +5 | Kyle Busch |
| 3 | 3 | — | Chase Elliott |
| 4 | 6 | +2 | Denny Hamlin |
| 5 | 1 | -4 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 6 | 19 | +13 | Clint Bowyer |
| 7 | 22 | +15 | Aric Almirola |
| 8 | 15 | +7 | Daniel Suarez |
| 9 | 9 | — | Erik Jones |
| 10 | 23 | +13 | Kurt Busch |
| 11 | 13 | +2 | Ryan Newman |
| 12 | 11 | -1 | William Byron |
| 13 | 4 | -9 | Alex Bowman |
| 14 | 17 | +3 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 15 | 25 | +10 | Brad Keselowski |
| 16 | 12 | -4 | Ryan Blaney |
| 17 | 18 | +1 | Austin Dillon |
| 18 | 2 | -16 | Kyle Larson |
| 19 | 5 | -14 | Joey Logano |
| 20 | 21 | +1 | Trevor Bayne |
| 21 | 20 | -1 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 22 | 16 | -6 | David Ragan |
| 23 | 29 | +6 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 24 | 26 | +2 | Kasey Kahne |
| 25 | 30 | +5 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 26 | 8 | -18 | Jamie McMurray |
| 27 | 36 | +9 | Ross Chastain |
| 28 | 27 | -1 | Bubba Wallace |
| 29 | 24 | -5 | Chris Buescher |
| 30 | 28 | -2 | Ty Dillon |
| 31 | 34 | +3 | D.J. Kennington |
| 32 | 31 | -1 | Michael McDowell |
| 33 | 35 | +2 | Timmy Hill |
| 34 | 32 | -2 | Gray Gaulding |
| 35 | 37 | +2 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 36 | 14 | -22 | Paul Menard |
| 37 | 33 | -4 | Corey LaJoie |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 22 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.5 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 3 | +6.9 |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 4 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 5 | +9.0 |
| 8 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 8 | +6.0 |
| 9 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 9 | +8.7 |
| 12 | William Byron | 10.8 | 12 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Alex Bowman | 15.6 | 13 | +2.6 |
| 14 | Jimmie Johnson | 18.0 | 14 | +4.0 |
| 15 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 15 | -1.2 |
| 16 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 16 | -9.2 |
| 17 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 17 | +0.7 |
| 18 | Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 18 | -7.7 |
| 19 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 19 | -8.7 |
| 21 | A.J. Allmendinger | 20.1 | 21 | -0.9 |
| 23 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.4 | 23 | -2.6 |
| 27 | Ross Chastain | 12.6 | 27 | -14.4 |
| 28 | Bubba Wallace | 12.6 | 28 | -15.4 |
| 29 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 29 | -17.0 |
| 30 | Ty Dillon | 23.1 | 30 | -6.9 |
| 32 | Michael McDowell | 15.6 | 32 | -16.4 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kevin Harvick: has 40 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 8.3 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 28 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 10.6 avg finish (1 win), finishing P4 on the day.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 TicketGuardian 500?
Kevin Harvick won the 2018 TicketGuardian 500 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Stewart-Haas Racing.
Where was the 2018 TicketGuardian 500 held?
The 2018 TicketGuardian 500 was held at Phoenix Raceway on March 11, 2018.