Bojangles' Southern 500
Darlington Raceway, September 1, 2019
Erik Jones
Winner
367
Laps
39
Entries
8
Leaders
Erik Jones won the 2019 Bojangles' Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway on September 1, 2019, leading 79 of 367 laps. Kyle Larson finished second; Kyle Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, September 1, 2019
Track
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
8 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | +14 | Erik Jones |
| 2 | 3 | +1 | Kyle Larson |
| 3 | 33 | +30 | Kyle Busch |
| 4 | 11 | +7 | Kevin Harvick |
| 5 | 2 | -3 | Brad Keselowski |
| 6 | 13 | +7 | Clint Bowyer |
| 7 | 4 | -3 | Kurt Busch |
| 8 | 19 | +11 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 9 | 17 | +8 | Paul Menard |
| 10 | 14 | +4 | Austin Dillon |
| 11 | 5 | -6 | Daniel Suarez |
| 12 | 12 | — | Chris Buescher |
| 13 | 10 | -3 | Ryan Blaney |
| 14 | 7 | -7 | Joey Logano |
| 15 | 22 | +7 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 16 | 6 | -10 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 17 | 30 | +13 | Aric Almirola |
| 18 | 16 | -2 | Alex Bowman |
| 19 | 8 | -11 | Chase Elliott |
| 20 | 29 | +9 | Ty Dillon |
| 21 | 1 | -20 | William Byron |
| 22 | 20 | -2 | Ryan Preece |
| 23 | 24 | +1 | Ryan Newman |
| 24 | 28 | +4 | Bubba Wallace |
| 25 | 25 | — | Landon Cassill |
| 26 | 26 | — | David Ragan |
| 27 | 32 | +5 | Matt Tifft |
| 28 | 31 | +3 | Ross Chastain |
| 29 | 9 | -20 | Denny Hamlin |
| 30 | 34 | +4 | Reed Sorenson |
| 31 | 37 | +6 | Joe Nemechek |
| 32 | 35 | +3 | J.J. Yeley |
| 33 | 21 | -12 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 34 | 39 | +5 | Joey Gase |
| 35 | 38 | +3 | Garrett Smithley |
| 36 | 27 | -9 | Corey LaJoie |
| 37 | 18 | -19 | Daniel Hemric |
| 38 | 23 | -15 | Michael McDowell |
| 39 | 36 | -3 | B.J. McLeod |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 24 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erik Jones | 14.7 | 1 | +13.7 |
| 2 | Kyle Larson | 13.1 | 2 | +11.1 |
| 5 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 5 | +10.4 |
| 10 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 10 | +9.9 |
| 11 | Daniel Suarez | 12.7 | 11 | +1.7 |
| 12 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 12 | -2.8 |
| 13 | Ryan Blaney | 8.2 | 13 | -4.8 |
| 14 | Joey Logano | 11.9 | 14 | -2.1 |
| 15 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 15 | +0.4 |
| 16 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 16 | +3.9 |
| 18 | Alex Bowman | 16.2 | 18 | -1.8 |
| 19 | Chase Elliott | 10.1 | 19 | -8.9 |
| 20 | Ty Dillon | 22.9 | 20 | +2.9 |
| 21 | William Byron | 10.7 | 21 | -10.3 |
| 22 | Ryan Preece | 13.3 | 22 | -8.7 |
| 24 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 24 | -11.3 |
| 28 | Ross Chastain | 14.5 | 28 | -13.5 |
| 29 | Denny Hamlin | 6.2 | 29 | -22.8 |
| 32 | J.J. Yeley | 28.6 | 32 | -3.4 |
| 33 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 33 | -13.1 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Erik Jones: has 19 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 11.8 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 7.5 avg finish (10 wins), finishing P29 on the day.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2019 Bojangles' Southern 500?
Erik Jones won the 2019 Bojangles' Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway driving for Legacy Motor Club.
Where was the 2019 Bojangles' Southern 500 held?
The 2019 Bojangles' Southern 500 was held at Darlington Raceway on September 1, 2019.