Bojangles' Southern 500

Darlington Raceway, September 1, 2019

Erik Jones
Winner
367
Laps
39
Entries
8
Leaders

Erik Jones won the 2019 Bojangles' Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway on September 1, 2019, leading 79 of 367 laps. Kyle Larson finished second; Kyle Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Sunday, September 1, 2019
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
8 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 15 +14 Erik Jones
2 3 +1 Kyle Larson
3 33 +30 Kyle Busch
4 11 +7 Kevin Harvick
5 2 -3 Brad Keselowski
6 13 +7 Clint Bowyer
7 4 -3 Kurt Busch
8 19 +11 Matt DiBenedetto
9 17 +8 Paul Menard
10 14 +4 Austin Dillon
11 5 -6 Daniel Suarez
12 12 Chris Buescher
13 10 -3 Ryan Blaney
14 7 -7 Joey Logano
15 22 +7 Martin Truex, Jr.
16 6 -10 Jimmie Johnson
17 30 +13 Aric Almirola
18 16 -2 Alex Bowman
19 8 -11 Chase Elliott
20 29 +9 Ty Dillon
21 1 -20 William Byron
22 20 -2 Ryan Preece
23 24 +1 Ryan Newman
24 28 +4 Bubba Wallace
25 25 Landon Cassill
26 26 David Ragan
27 32 +5 Matt Tifft
28 31 +3 Ross Chastain
29 9 -20 Denny Hamlin
30 34 +4 Reed Sorenson
31 37 +6 Joe Nemechek
32 35 +3 J.J. Yeley
33 21 -12 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
34 39 +5 Joey Gase
35 38 +3 Garrett Smithley
36 27 -9 Corey LaJoie
37 18 -19 Daniel Hemric
38 23 -15 Michael McDowell
39 36 -3 B.J. McLeod
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 24 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Erik Jones 14.7 1 +13.7
2 Kyle Larson 13.1 2 +11.1
5 Brad Keselowski 15.4 5 +10.4
10 Austin Dillon 19.9 10 +9.9
11 Daniel Suarez 12.7 11 +1.7
12 Chris Buescher 9.2 12 -2.8
13 Ryan Blaney 8.2 13 -4.8
14 Joey Logano 11.9 14 -2.1
15 Martin Truex, Jr. 15.4 15 +0.4
16 Jimmie Johnson 19.9 16 +3.9
18 Alex Bowman 16.2 18 -1.8
19 Chase Elliott 10.1 19 -8.9
20 Ty Dillon 22.9 20 +2.9
21 William Byron 10.7 21 -10.3
22 Ryan Preece 13.3 22 -8.7
24 Bubba Wallace 12.7 24 -11.3
28 Ross Chastain 14.5 28 -13.5
29 Denny Hamlin 6.2 29 -22.8
32 J.J. Yeley 28.6 32 -3.4
33 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 19.9 33 -13.1

(showing top 20 finishers)

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Erik Jones: has 19 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 11.8 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 7.5 avg finish (10 wins), finishing P29 on the day.

Explore More

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2019 Bojangles' Southern 500?
Erik Jones won the 2019 Bojangles' Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway driving for Legacy Motor Club.
Where was the 2019 Bojangles' Southern 500 held?
The 2019 Bojangles' Southern 500 was held at Darlington Raceway on September 1, 2019.